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Good morning and welcome to the Hodl Report
Weekends in crypto are like hangovers: quiet, weird, and full of regret if you check your portfolio too often. But what’s actually happening when trading volume disappears and charts start moving like they’re drunk in slow motion? We’re digging into why Saturdays feel off-chain—and why Palmer Luckey’s Crypto bank Erebor might be just work. Spoiler: a VR warlord running a crypto bank might not be the strangest thing you read today.
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Editors Corner
Why Weekends in Crypto Feel So Weird
Happy Friday folks. If you’ve been in crypto long enough, you’ve probably noticed a pattern: the second you decide to unplug for the weekend, Bitcoin does something stupid.
You’re halfway through brunch, everything’s fine — then you check your phone and suddenly BTC’s down 4%, some altcoin you’ve never heard of is up 80%, and Twitter is melting down like it’s 2022 again.
Welcome to the weekend.
Here are a few patterns I’ve noticed from watching crypto markets on weekends for years:
Liquidity Goes on Vacation
Here’s the simple truth: the big trading desks clock out on Friday. The institutions, the market-makers, the algos — all gone.
What’s left is a bunch of retail traders and bored whales clicking buttons for fun. That’s why you’ll see random price spikes or dumps that make zero sense.
There’s not some secret “weekend narrative.” It’s just low liquidity and high chaos.
Retail Runs the Show
Weekends are when the degens take over. Everyone’s got free time, charts are open, and conviction gets replaced by caffeine. People chase Friday’s green candles, panic on Saturday’s dip, and post motivational memes by Sunday night.
Monday Always Settles the Score
If you zoom out, most of Bitcoin’s actual gains over the years happen Monday through Thursday when the serious money’s awake.
Weekends are emotional turbulence. You get chop, fakeouts, and stop hunts designed to ruin your mood before Monday morning.
The Game Behind the Chaos
Low liquidity means price moves easier. Big players know this, and they’ll use the weekend lull to sweep liquidity, trigger liquidations, and reset positions before the herd returns.
If it feels like someone’s hunting your stop losses on Saturdays, it’s because they probably are especially offshore asian exchanges Binance is the worst and liquidating over the weekend.
My Weekend Rule
I don’t trade weekends. I used to, but it’s like gambling. I just check prices Sunday night, see what the damage is, and prep for Monday when real liquidity comes back.
Let the weekend warriors fight it out. I’d rather enjoy my coffee and watch from a safe distance.
So yeah — weekends in crypto aren’t mystical, they’re just messy. Think of them as a low-volume carnival of bad decisions.
If you absolutely have to trade, fine — but at least know what game you’re playing. Otherwise, close the charts, go outside, and let the market burn itself out without you.
You’ll come back Monday feeling like a genius.
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Today’s Report
Palmer Luckey’s Crypto Bank, Erebor Gains Preliminary Regulatory Approval
Our Report
Palmer Luckey’s latest venture, Erebor, just got a gold star from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency — a preliminary approval to start a crypto-friendly bank. It’s not a full license yet (cue the FDIC), but it's enough to send a signal: regulators might be warming up to banks that don’t treat crypto like nuclear waste. Erebor’s play? Use Luckey’s Rolodex, lend against crypto and AI gear, and do the banking thing smarter — or at least weirder — than your average suit. But with political muscle behind it and eyebrow-raising moves inside the regulatory maze, this isn't your average neobank story.
Key Points
Erebor has received preliminary approval from the OCC — the first regulatory hurdle to becoming a federally chartered bank.
FDIC approval is still pending, and that's no formality. These processes usually take close to 10 months.
Investors include Founders Fund and 8VC, putting Erebor's valuation north of $2 billion before it even opens its metaphorical doors.
Erebor's pitch to backers emphasized its ability to “accelerate” the regulatory process via Luckey’s political connections. Subtle.
One of Erebor’s legal advisors on the OCC application is now the OCC’s chief counsel. Nothing to see here, folks.
The bank plans to lend against unconventional assets — think crypto collateral and GPUs — which traditional banks tend to avoid.
The OCC chief framed this as proof the agency isn’t anti-crypto — a strategic PR win whether or not Erebor survives.
Relevance
This is less about one bank and more about whether U.S. regulators are ready to stop treating crypto like it’s contagious. Erebor isn’t pitching itself as a Coinbase clone or DeFi gateway — it’s positioning as a full-stack bank with regulatory blessings and an appetite for weird risk. That’s new. And if the FDIC gives the green light, it could change the blueprint for how crypto firms and adjacent sectors (AI, HPC, etc.) access capital.
But let’s not skip past the politics. Erebor’s core edge isn’t technology — it’s access. When your bank pitch includes your “network” as a feature, it raises two questions: how much faster can you move, and how messy will the blowback be if something goes wrong? That regulatory personnel hop — lawyer to regulator — will draw scrutiny. Whether it's ethical or not, it’s already narrative fuel.
If Erebor gets through, expect a rush of copycats — well-funded, well-connected, and eager to bank the parts of the economy traditional finance doesn’t understand. If it stalls or crashes, it becomes another cautionary tale of hubris, hype, and regulatory whiplash. Either way, the next chapter in U.S. crypto banking just got way more interesting.
Today’s Top News
HEADLINES
Genius Act is now law — the US’s first major federal stablecoin framework — The Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act (GENIUS Act) was signed in July 2025, mandating stablecoins be backed 1:1 by U.S. dollars or low-risk assets, with new reserve, auditing, and disclosure obligations. It also proposes dual federal/state oversight. The law provides the first definitive U.S. regulatory regime for many stablecoins.
Chinese firm gives Eric Trump–affiliated crypto firm generous terms from Bitmain — SEC filings disclose that Bitmain extended unusually favorable equipment deals to a firm partially owned by Eric Trump. This raises questions of preferential treatment and regulatory scrutiny in crypto‑hardware procurement. The deal may attract political, legal, and market attention.
Bitcoin price extends decline as US–China trade tensions escalate — Bitcoin’s price fell sharply, extending losses amid renewed trade tensions between the U.S. and China. The drop reflects how macro/headline risks continue to influence crypto markets. Investor sentiment is fragile, especially with large exposures to leverage and derivatives.
‘Uptober’ rally questioned as markets dip ahead of month’s end — Crypto analysts are becoming cautious after the early-October rally faded, as markets turned red despite bullish expectations for “Uptober.” Some see it as a short-term retracement, others flag weakening momentum. The story reflects broader uncertainty about whether this bull cycle has legs.
Today’s Top Meme
MEME GOD
Watching my gf get a side of guac at chipotle after my $600,000 perps position just evaporated
— #Alan Carroll (#@alancarroII)
6:12 PM • Oct 11, 2025
Today’s Top Tweet
TWITTER NEVER SLEEPS
SBET raises at a premium to buy more ETH
We’ve raised $76.5M by issuing equity at $17 per share (12% premium to market), with the potential for ~$79M more though a novel 90-day premium purchase contract at $17.50 per share (19% premium) – the first of its kind in the DAT ecosystem.
- SharpLink sold equity at both a
— #SharpLink (SBET) (#@SharpLinkGaming)
12:06 PM • Oct 16, 2025
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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.