Good morning and welcome to the Hodl Report

Editors Corner

Boredom Is a Bullish Signal

Bull markets are exciting.
Bear markets are terrifying.
But the most important phase? It’s usually just… boring.

Right now, nothing dramatic is happening. No parabolic runs. No viral pumps. No euphoria. Just sideways chop and declining attention.

That boredom isn’t weakness. It’s reset.

When markets get boring:

  • Speculators lose interest

  • Volume dries up

  • Weak hands move on

  • Prices stabilize quietly

This is when excess gets flushed out and expectations come back to earth.

Excitement attracts tourists.
Boredom attracts builders.

Most investors hate this phase because it feels like nothing is happening. But historically, the quiet stretches are where accumulation happens — slowly, patiently, without applause.

By the time things feel exciting again, the move has already started.

Boredom doesn’t mean the opportunity is gone.
It usually means it’s forming.

And the people who can sit through it?
They’re usually the ones who get paid.

Which crypto exchange collapse in 2022 most directly triggered a global loss of trust in centralized exchanges?

Login or Subscribe to participate

Today’s Report

Michael Saylor Has a Plan. It Involves More Bitcoin.

🚨 Our Report

Michael Saylor is doing what Michael Saylor does best: doubling down while everyone else reaches for the exits. As Bitcoin slides and Strategy’s balance sheet bleeds red ink, the firm just bought more BTC — because of course it did. Paper losses are piling up, critics are circling, and MSTR stock has taken a beating, but the message from the top remains stubbornly consistent: this is all part of the plan. Rather than panic about leverage or liquidity, Saylor is calmly waving off credit-risk fears and pointing to refinancing as the solution. The conviction hasn’t cracked — but the tone has matured. This is Bitcoin maximalism under real stress testing.

🔓 Key Points

  • Strategy added another ~1,100+ BTC during the downturn, pushing its total holdings north of 700,000 BTC, even as prices sit well below prior highs.

  • The company reported massive quarterly losses driven largely by mark-to-market accounting on its Bitcoin treasury — not from operational collapse, but from price reality.

  • Investors are focused on Strategy’s convertible debt stack, with several billion dollars coming due in the next few years, alongside sizable preferred dividend obligations.

  • Saylor and management have repeatedly emphasized that forced Bitcoin sales are not on the table, suggesting refinancing, restructuring, or conversion as alternatives.

  • MSTR stock continues to trade as a high-beta proxy for Bitcoin itself — amplifying gains in bull markets and pain during drawdowns.

🔐 Relevance

This is the moment where ideology meets balance-sheet gravity.

For years, Strategy’s playbook was simple and brutally effective: borrow cheap capital, buy Bitcoin, never sell, and let time do the heavy lifting. In a raging bull market, that looked genius. In a prolonged downturn, it exposes the real trade-off — Bitcoin conviction versus capital-market discipline.

What’s notable isn’t that Strategy is underwater. That’s expected in a volatile asset. What is notable is the rhetorical shift. The mantra has quietly evolved from “never sell Bitcoin” to “we’ll refinance the debt.” That’s not capitulation — it’s pragmatism. And it matters. Because Strategy is no longer just a software company with a Bitcoin hobby; it’s a leveraged Bitcoin treasury with shareholders, creditors, and rating agencies watching closely.

For sophisticated investors, this story isn’t about whether Bitcoin is “dead” (it isn’t) or whether Saylor has lost faith (he hasn’t). It’s about time horizons and liquidity. If Bitcoin recovers meaningfully before major maturities hit, Strategy looks prescient again. If the drawdown drags on, financial engineering becomes as important as Bitcoin theology.

The bigger takeaway? Strategy has become a live experiment in corporate-scale Bitcoin leverage. And like all leverage, it magnifies conviction — and consequences. Whether this era is remembered as disciplined accumulation or beautifully stubborn overreach depends entirely on what Bitcoin does next.

Today’s Top News

HEADLINES

Market Trendline

PRICE ACTION

Crypto spent the last 24 hours doing what it does best when conviction is low: going nowhere loudly.

Market Overview
Bitcoin continues to churn just below the psychological $70K level, rejecting every attempt at a clean breakout. Volatility remains elevated, but direction is conspicuously absent. Volume has thinned out across majors, a classic sign that traders are waiting for permission — from macro, from flows, or from each other. Altcoin breadth remains weak, and rallies are being sold into rather than chased.

Notable Movers

  • Bitcoin (BTC): Repeated failures near the $70–71K resistance zone are starting to look structural rather than accidental. Spot demand is uneven, and recent price action suggests distribution more than accumulation.

  • Ethereum (ETH): ETH is glued to the $2K handle, slipping modestly but without panic. Momentum indicators remain soft, and buyers are showing up late — if at all. ETH needs broader risk-on behavior to escape gravity.

  • High-beta alts & memecoins: This is where the damage is. Speculative names continue to bleed as traders unwind risk. The “buy every dip” muscle memory is gone, at least for now.

  • Relative strength pockets: A handful of large-cap alts are holding up better than expected, but the moves are defensive rotations, not fresh conviction.

Macro View
The tape reflects macro paralysis. With inflation data and labor numbers looming, crypto is trading like a macro asset — because it is one. Add in ongoing regulatory overhangs and mixed institutional flows, and you get a market that’s allergic to commitment.

Bottom Line
This is a market in wait mode. Until Bitcoin either reclaims $70K with authority or loses key support below, chop is the path of least resistance. Traders are cautious, leverage is getting flushed, and patience is the real alpha right now.

Today’s Top Meme

MEME GOD

Today’s Top Tweet

TWITTER NEVER SLEEPS

How'd I do this week?

Don't be shy! Give me some feedback. Let me know what you think below or shoot me an email with any suggestions

Login or Subscribe to participate

You made it to the bottom, congrats! I really appreciate you reading. If you enjoyed today’s content please share it with a friend and if you aren’t already subscribed please do!

DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.

Reply

Avatar

or to participate