
Good morning and welcome to the Hodl Report
What was the first real‑world item ever purchased with Bitcoin in 2010?
Today’s Report
When AI Breaks the Economy, Cathie Wood Says Buy Bitcoin

🚨 Our Report
Cathie Wood is back with a fresh macro plot twist — and this time, it’s not inflation she’s worried about. Speaking to investors this week, the ARK Invest CEO argued that artificial intelligence and relentless innovation are about to unleash what she calls “deflationary chaos.” Not exactly the phrase central bankers dream about. But in Wood’s world, that chaos is precisely where Bitcoin shines.
Her thesis? As AI slashes costs and supercharges productivity, traditional financial systems — built on assumptions of steady inflation and manageable growth — could wobble. Credit markets, debt-heavy balance sheets, and policy frameworks may struggle to adjust to rapidly falling prices and disruptive tech cycles. Bitcoin, with its fixed supply and decentralized architecture, doesn’t care. No central bank. No earnings calls. Just math.
In short: if AI breaks the old economic model, Bitcoin might be the escape hatch.
🔓 Key Points
Deflation is the new villain: Wood argues AI-driven productivity gains could push prices lower across sectors, creating structural deflation — a scenario legacy financial systems aren’t designed to handle.
Innovation shock incoming: Exponential advances in AI and automation are accelerating cost declines, potentially destabilizing debt-based economic structures.
Bitcoin’s fixed supply matters: With only 21 million coins ever to exist, BTC doesn’t rely on monetary policy, interest rates, or credit cycles to justify its value proposition.
Beyond the inflation hedge narrative: Wood reframes Bitcoin not just as protection against fiat debasement, but as a resilient asset in both inflationary and deflationary regimes.
Markets still volatile: While the long-term thesis is bold, near-term price action remains choppy, with sentiment swinging between macro fear and institutional optimism.
🔐 Relevance
This is a subtle but important narrative evolution.
For years, Bitcoin’s elevator pitch has been simple: hedge against money printing. But if we enter an era where AI compresses costs and destabilizes traditional growth assumptions, inflation might not be the primary threat. Deflation — especially the disruptive, innovation-driven kind — could be just as destabilizing.
In that scenario, heavily leveraged systems feel the strain. Debt becomes harder to service. Earnings expectations shift. Entire industries get repriced overnight. Bitcoin, by contrast, doesn’t generate cash flow, doesn’t depend on margin expansion, and doesn’t answer to policymakers trying to fine-tune CPI. Its appeal becomes structural rather than cyclical.
Of course, narratives are not price catalysts on their own. Traders still need liquidity, positioning, and momentum. And Bitcoin has never required a macro justification to be volatile.
But Wood’s framing widens the lens. Instead of asking whether Bitcoin survives the next rate decision, the question becomes whether it thrives in a world where exponential technology scrambles economic assumptions altogether.
If AI truly delivers a deflationary shock, Bitcoin’s role might shift from speculative tech proxy to systemic hedge.
And that’s a much bigger trade.
Today’s Top News
HEADLINES
Coinbase Misses Q4 Revenue Estimates as Trading Activity Slows — Coinbase reported lower-than-expected quarterly revenue, with transaction income dropping below $1 billion. The earnings miss reflects declining retail activity and softer market volumes. Shares fell as investors reassessed growth expectations for the exchange sector.
Goldman Sachs Discloses $2.3B in Crypto Holdings Including Bitcoin and XRP — Goldman Sachs revealed a $2.3 billion exposure to crypto assets, including Bitcoin and XRP. The disclosure highlights continued institutional engagement despite volatility. It signals that major banks remain strategically invested in digital assets.
Bitcoin Tumbles Back Near $65K as Tech Sell-Off Deepens — Bitcoin slid toward $65,000 amid a broader technology stock rout, reinforcing its correlation with risk assets. Analysts cite macro uncertainty and AI-sector weakness as key drivers of the selloff. The move raises concerns about short-term downside momentum if equities continue to weaken.
Standard Chartered Slashes Bitcoin Outlook, Warns of $50K Risk — The bank cut its Bitcoin price forecast, warning that BTC could fall to $50,000 before stabilizing. The downgrade adds pressure to institutional sentiment during an already fragile market phase. Traders are recalibrating risk models in response to the bearish projection.
Senate Democrat Pushes to Advance U.S. Crypto Bill as SEC Warns of Risks — Lawmakers are accelerating efforts to move forward comprehensive U.S. crypto legislation. The SEC cautioned that failure to pass reforms could weaken investor protections. Regulatory clarity remains a key catalyst for market structure shifts.
Market Trendline
Market Overview
Bitcoin is hovering just below recent highs, grinding in a tight range after last week’s breakout attempt fizzled. Momentum hasn’t reversed — it’s just paused. Perps funding is mildly positive, open interest elevated but not euphoric. Translation: leverage is there, but not frothy.
ETH is tracking BTC but quietly outperforming on the week, with rotation creeping back into majors. Total market cap is flat-ish over the last 24 hours, but under the hood, it’s anything but quiet.
Notable Movers
SOL: Up strong on renewed ecosystem flows and a spike in DEX volume. Meme coin activity is back (again), and Solana is the casino of choice.
AVAX: Catching a bid on fresh subnet announcements and institutional pilot chatter. Feels narrative-driven, but price is respecting it.
LINK: Broke out of its recent range on sustained buying pressure. Oracle demand + tokenized RWAs remains a sticky theme.
ARB: Underperformed after a governance proposal stirred debate around emissions. Not a collapse — just a reminder that tokenomics still matter.
Macro View
ETF flows remain constructive, though not explosive. Stablecoin supply is ticking up modestly — dry powder building, not deploying aggressively yet. On-chain activity shows traders leaning risk-on, but without the manic velocity of a true alt season.
Meanwhile, rates volatility in TradFi has cooled, which helps keep the “risk assets can breathe” narrative intact. Crypto is still trading like high-beta tech with better memes.
Bottom Line
We’re in a coiled spring phase. BTC is compressing, alts are selectively rotating, and leverage hasn’t blown out — yet. If Bitcoin resolves higher, this market likely accelerates fast. If it loses range support, expect crowded longs to feel it.
For now, it’s controlled aggression.
How'd I do this week?
You made it to the bottom, congrats! I really appreciate you reading. If you enjoyed today’s content please share it with a friend and if you aren’t already subscribed please do!
DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.