Good morning and welcome to the Hodl Report
Today’s Report
Did Jane Street Really Nuke Bitcoin?
🚨 Our Report
Crypto X needed a villain this week — and it chose Jane Street. The theory? That the Wall Street trading juggernaut has been casually body-slamming Bitcoin every morning at 10 a.m. ET, triggering tidy little liquidations before presumably scooping exposure back up cheaper. The rumor caught fresh wind after a lawsuit tied to the 2022 Terra collapse named the firm, and — conveniently — one recent 10 a.m. dip didn’t show up on schedule. Bitcoin then ripped higher. Correlation, meet confirmation bias.
The problem? The narrative is cleaner than the evidence.
🔓 Key Points
The “10 a.m. Slam” Theory: Traders claimed a recurring sell-off right at the U.S. equity open was evidence of algorithmic dumping by Jane Street, potentially tied to ETF hedging flows.
The Lawsuit Fuel: Legal action connected to Terra-era dealings put Jane Street back in headlines. Some traders interpreted the timing of the lawsuit and a missing intraday dip as a smoking gun.
Bitcoin’s Bounce: BTC rallied roughly 5–6% in the same window, pushing back toward major psychological levels and triggering short squeezes — which only strengthened the online narrative.
Analysts Push Back: Market observers note there’s no verified data showing a coordinated daily sell program by any single firm. Bitcoin trades across dozens of venues globally, and its liquidity profile makes consistent, predictable “control” far more complicated than social media suggests.
Market Structure Reality: The 10 a.m. ET window coincides with peak ETF activity, hedging flows, equity open volatility, and macro data digestion. High-frequency trading and arbitrage between futures, ETFs, and spot markets can create sharp, repeatable intraday moves — without requiring a Bond villain pressing a red button.
🔐 Relevance
Here’s the grown-up take: markets love patterns. Traders love villains. Crypto loves both.
But Bitcoin is now deeply interwoven with traditional finance plumbing. ETF authorized participants hedge exposure. Market makers rebalance inventory. Liquidity clusters around the U.S. open. That can absolutely create mechanical pressure at specific times of day. What it doesn’t automatically create is proof of coordinated manipulation.
The more interesting story isn’t whether Jane Street “crashed Bitcoin at 10 a.m.” It’s that Bitcoin’s price discovery increasingly overlaps with TradFi rhythms. The U.S. equity open matters. ETF flows matter. Hedging mechanics matter. That’s structural — not conspiratorial.
And as for the rally? Likely positioning. Short squeezes. Narrative reflexivity. Once the crowd decided the villain had left the building, risk appetite snapped back. Crypto doesn’t just trade on liquidity — it trades on vibes.
For savvy investors, the takeaway is simple: understand the plumbing. Watch ETF flows. Respect intraday liquidity windows. But don’t outsource your macro thesis to a meme.
Bitcoin doesn’t need a mastermind to move 5%. It just needs leverage and a story.
Today’s Top News
HEADLINES
Bitcoin Slides as Risk-Off Mood Hits Crypto Markets — Bitcoin fell alongside major altcoins as a broader risk-off sentiment swept global markets following tech sector weakness. Despite the pullback, several large-cap tokens are still holding weekly gains. Traders are watching macro indicators closely to gauge whether this is a temporary correction or the start of deeper downside.
Trump-Linked Bitcoin Miner Shares Plunge Amid Crypto Selloff — A Bitcoin mining firm associated with the Trump family saw shares tumble during the latest crypto downturn. The drop underscores how political branding offers little insulation from volatility. Investors are reassessing exposure to high-beta crypto equities.
Analyst Says Bitcoin Selling Pressure Is Nearly Exhausted — Market analysts suggest that forced selling and liquidation events may be nearing completion. On-chain metrics indicate declining exchange inflows and stabilizing derivatives funding rates. If confirmed, this could pave the way for consolidation or recovery.
Ethereum’s 2029 Roadmap Aims to Become High-Speed ‘Internet of Value’ — Ethereum developers outlined an ambitious plan to dramatically improve scalability and throughput by 2029. The roadmap focuses on efficiency upgrades and enhanced user experience. Long-term investors view the strategy as critical for maintaining Ethereum’s dominance in smart contracts.
Market Trendline
PRICE ACTION
Bitcoin (BTC) — trading around the mid-$60Ks after a slight dip from recent highs, reflecting cautious sentiment as the market digests key macro cues and technical retests.
Ethereum (ETH) — holding just above $2,000, soft on the session with sellers edging in at resistance levels.
Altcoin Movers
From live price feed data today:
BNB ~ ₹57.5K — slightly green, showing moderate resilience.
Solana (SOL) ~ ₹7,980 — mild pullback but holding key zones.
XRP ~ ₹128 — sees larger red, trending weaker vs majors.
Dogecoin (DOGE) ~ ₹9 — shaky, pressured amid broad sell-offs.
Bitcoin Cash ~ ₹44K — slips with broader alt weakness.
Cardano (ADA) ~ ₹26 — modest red, following general alt trend.
🧠 Market Mood
⚖️ Neutral to cautious overall — majors consolidating after recent ETF-linked rallies and macro jitters. Altcoins are under more pressure than BTC & ETH, with BNB and SOL showing relative strength, while XRP, DOGE and other mid-caps lag. Volume is subdued, hinting at range-bound action unless a catalyst sparks momentum.
📊 Key Levels to Watch
BTC: support ~66K | resistance ~69K+
ETH: support ~2K | resistance ~2.08K–2.10K
SOL/BNB: watch short-term ranges as buyers defend recent bounce areas
📌 Takeaway for readers:
Markets are digesting profit-taking and macro signals, with Bitcoin stability anchoring sentiment. Alts remain softer but show pockets of support — this environment favors disciplined entries and watching key technical zones before major directional moves.
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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.