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Good morning and welcome to the Hodl Report
Trump’s suddenly pro-crypto 401Ks? That’s one way to pump your polling numbers and your portfolio. But before you throw your retirement plan into memecoins, we’ve got three macro headwinds worth watching—because this market still feels like it's wearing ankle weights. Let’s unpack the hype, the hurdles, and whether we’re actually cleared for liftoff.
Today’s Report
Why We’re Not “Full Send” Yet
(Even Though It Kinda Feels Like We Should Be)
Yes, we’re technically in a crypto bull market. Prices are up. Memecoins are memeing. Scams are scamming. All the usual signs.
But for anyone wondering why we haven’t gone full face-melting mania just yet — blame it on these three buzzkills:
1. The Fed Rate Cut Mirage
Everyone was high on hopium for a September rate cut. Then PCE inflation came in hotter than expected.
As a result, the probability of a September cut took a nosedive. Rate traders are now pricing in a “maybe later” narrative. Until Jerome starts cutting, risk assets (yes, that includes your altbags) will struggle to rip.
✅ What we need: Softer inflation prints + job market cooling = greenlight for cuts.
2. ISM Still Below 50 (Barely Breathing)
The ISM Manufacturing Index clocked in at 48.4 last Friday. Under 50 = contraction. It's been sub-50 for over a year now.
Until this number climbs over 50 and stays there, it signals that the economy is still dragging its feet. And crypto doesn’t go full throttle when the real economy looks like it's in bed with a cold.
✅ What we need: A clean break above 50 to confirm we’re back in expansion mode.
3. The Dollar Won’t Die
$DXY just had one of its strongest months in years. A surging dollar sucks the air out of risk assets.
It’s basically the market saying “nah” to risk right now. And it’s not going to let go until the Fed signals a real pivot or other global currencies start showing signs of life.
✅ What we need: A weakening DXY or at least a pause in the uptrend.
Bottom line:
We're revving the bull market engine... but still stuck in neutral.
Until these macro headwinds shift, “full send” is on hold. For now.
Today’s Report
Trump Signs Off, Bitcoin Moves In: 401(k)s Get the Crypto Green Light
The Report
Bitcoin isn’t just climbing—it’s sprinting. On August 7, 2025, freshly baked news broke: President Trump signed an executive order opening the vault, letting alternative assets—real estate, private equity, and yes, cryptocurrencies—slide into 401(k) retirement plans. The markets cheered: Bitcoin soared ~2% to above $116,000, while Ethereum jumped over 7%. Institutional heavyweights like Fidelity and T. Rowe Price are now positioned to play ball with digital assets.
Key Points
Trump’s executive order directs the Labor Department and SEC to update retirement plan rules, officially allowing private equity, real estate, and cryptocurrencies into 401(k)s.
Bitcoin popped nearly 2%, hitting $116,500. Ethereum rallied harder, up over 7% to ~$3,860. Spot Bitcoin ETFs and Coinbase stock also caught a tailwind.
The move cracks open access to a ~$10 trillion retirement market, potentially rewriting the long-term demand curve for digital assets.
Not everyone’s thrilled: warnings abound about volatility, illiquidity, elevated fees, and fuzzy fiduciary obligations.
Relevance
Let’s not undersell this: allowing crypto in 401(k)s isn’t a quirky headline—it’s a tectonic shift in asset legitimacy. Crypto is no longer just for hedge funds and degens; it’s headed into the retirement portfolios of America’s working class.
From a market standpoint, this is a credibility boost on steroids. When retirement funds start nibbling Bitcoin and Ethereum, the buying pressure becomes structural, not just speculative. That recent price bump? It’s the start of a repricing event based on future flows, not just vibes.
Of course, this brave new world isn’t without risks. Retirement plans aren’t designed to stomach 10% daily swings. Fiduciaries will need tight frameworks—think allocation limits, risk bands, and clearer disclosures—to avoid turning pensions into casino chips.
But make no mistake: this opens the floodgates. Asset managers have lobbied for this for years. Now, the likes of Blackstone, Apollo, and every fund with “digital innovation” in its name will be jockeying for position. And institutions on the sidelines? Consider this your FOMO trigger.
In short: crypto just got a 401(k) co-sign from the U.S. government. Whether that ends in a golden bull run or regulatory whiplash is anyone’s guess—but the gates are open.
🧠 Crypto Trivia
Today’s Top News
Headlines
Trump authorizes crypto investments in 401(k) plans — A sweeping executive order now allows cryptocurrencies in U.S. retirement portfolios, unlocking trillions in potential capital. The move could accelerate institutional adoption and reshape long-term crypto demand. It's one of the biggest regulatory shifts in the asset class's history.
UK lifts retail ban on crypto ETNs — The Financial Conduct Authority has authorized the sale of crypto exchange-traded notes (ETNs) to UK retail investors starting October. This marks a pivotal regulatory reversal and opens the floodgates for new retail capital. The move is being likened to the UK’s 1980s "Big Bang" financial reforms.
Mike Novogratz: Crypto treasury buying spree may be over — Galaxy Digital’s CEO says the era of companies stacking Bitcoin and Ethereum on balance sheets is cooling off. He points to macro uncertainty and shifting institutional strategies. The statement has tempered bullish treasury adoption narratives.
Bitcoin price lifts on 401(k) optimism — Bitcoin saw a modest price increase following the news that U.S. retirement accounts can now include crypto. Market analysts say this reform may signal broader mainstream financial integration. The news provided a bullish jolt to overall sentiment.
Market Trendline
Price Action
Bitcoin’s back above $116K, and the market’s wearing its best “Greed” face in weeks. ETH’s sprinting, altcoins are stirring, and public markets are finally giving crypto the nod—because what’s summer without a little risk-on euphoria?
Market Overview
Total crypto market cap is floating near $3.9T, up about 2% in the last 24 hours. Bitcoin and Ethereum are leading the charge, dragging sentiment out of the post-July doldrums. A combo of policy headlines, whale activity, and the market’s favorite summer pastime—speculation—has sparked fresh momentum.
Notable Movers
Bitcoin (BTC) finally cleared the $116K air pocket after weeks of chop. On-chain metrics show rising whale accumulation, and address activity is ticking up—classic signs of “smart money” moving back in.
Ethereum (ETH) climbed 6%+, lifted by growing optimism around crypto integration in retirement plans. Yes, apparently your 401(k) is now a DeFi play.
Polygon (POL) popped above key moving averages, while Toncoin (TON) broke through its EMAs with conviction—both flashing early breakout signals.
XRP isn’t pumping, but it is pivoting. Ripple just dropped $200M to acquire a stablecoin infra company—because apparently they’re building the next-gen PayPal while the rest of us are watching charts.
Macro View
Crypto’s getting cozy with TradFi. Trump’s executive order pushing crypto into retirement portfolios has the suits salivating. Galaxy Digital, Circle, and eToro are lining up IPOs, and the “crypto summer” IPO cycle is suddenly looking very real.
Bottom Line
Markets are heating up, but this isn’t just another meme-fueled mirage. BTC and ETH are moving on solid catalysts—policy, institutions, and on-chain signals. Alts are flirting with breakouts, but we’ve seen this dance before. Proceed, but maybe keep one eye on the exit.
Today’s Top Tweet
Crypto Twitter Never Sleeps
This man is 42 years old.
Frens don't let frens snort shitcoins.
— #Architect🛡️ (#@Architect9000)
7:34 AM • Aug 2, 2025
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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.