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When I’m sizing up a new token, I start with a blunt question: who’s going to buy this off me later, and why will they pay up? It’s a deceptively simple filter, but it forces me to think like the eventual exit counter-party, not the starry-eyed entrant I am today.

First, it makes me quantify the story I’m about to swallow. Narratives, not spreadsheets, move markets in crypto. If revenue, active wallets and TVL aren’t trending north-east and the project isn’t sitting on an ignored catalyst (protocol upgrade, exchange listing, Sydney-Sweeney-front-row-ad, take your pick), then who exactly is going to bid this higher? Spoiler: probably nobody.

Second, it disciplines position sizing. If I can’t articulate an emerging narrative—“cross-chain AI oracles,” “real-world asset yield,” whatever the crowd’s chanting this quarter—then I mark it down as exit liquidity risk and keep my stack small.

Finally, it protects me from the siren song of early hype. Asking “why will the next buyer care?” is kryptonite for FOMO; it forces me to identify which cohort shows up next (retail, funds, the protocol’s own treasury) and whether their checkbook is actually bigger than mine.

Implementing the model

Fundamentals tell me what I’m buying; answering “who buys next” tells me why it can still go higher. That second question keeps my capital in stories that still have chapters left.

The Report
Crypto crime isn’t just back—it’s breaking personal bests. Halfway through 2025, hackers have already lifted $2.17 billion worth of digital assets—out-stealing all of 2024 in six messy months. The single biggest smash-and-grab? North Korea’s $1.5 billion raid on ByBit, a record-setting heist that single-handedly drives the chart vertical. If the current pace holds, the year could close north of $4 billion in service losses alone, making 2022’s “annus horribilis” look quaint. Meanwhile, thieves are zooming in on retail holders, and the rise of “wrench attacks” (yes, actual wrenches) proves that cold storage is useless when someone breaks down your door.

Key Points

Relevance
The numbers confirm what traders felt in their ledger bones: we’re living through a Darwinian upgrade cycle in crypto crime. Institutional fortifications pushed attackers toward softer, flesh-and-blood targets, but the ByBit mega-breach reminds us state actors can still rip straight through hardened walls when the haul is juicy enough. For market participants, the playbook is evolving: multisig and smart-contract audits are table stakes, but so is OPSEC worthy of a Cold War spy. Expect higher on-chain premiums as thieves continue to pay whatever it takes to outrun compliance bots—and note the growing cache of untouched loot idling on-chain. Criminal “HODLing” suggests confidence in evading seizure or a perverse belief in future price appreciation; either way, those coins represent latent sell pressure that could surface in any liquidity crunch. Bottom line: security budgets must scale with token valuations, because the next billion-dollar hack is no longer a Black Swan—it’s a quarterly KPI for the bad guys.

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