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Good morning and welcome to the Hodl Report
Apparently the market woke up this week, glanced at its reflection, and decided to swan-dive off a cliff. And while your portfolio is busy reenacting a disaster movie, a certain billionaire is out here pitching “what if politicians… but replaced by markets?” as if that’s not the exact plot twist we deserved. Meanwhile, everyone chasing comfort is learning—again—that comfort pays about as well as a meme coin rug pull. Buckle up; today’s chaos comes with extra seasoning.
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Editors Corner
😬 Comfort Is the Enemy of Returns
Let’s not sugarcoat it — the market looks like it fell down a flight of stairs this week. Everything’s red. Sentiment’s shot. Even the people who swore they’d “buy every dip” suddenly have a lot of excuses and not a lot of buys.
This is exactly what bottoms feel like.
Not dramatic.
Not heroic.
Just deeply, nauseatingly uncomfortable.
And here’s the part most people hate to admit:
The moments that feel the worst are always the moments that end up paying the most.
When fear is everywhere, prices get stupid.
Good assets get thrown out with the junk.
Conviction shrinks, timelines shorten, and everyone retreats into the safety of stables and denial.
But look back at every major crypto recovery.
Every single one started from a place where the market felt broken, sentiment was dead, and everyone was convinced “maybe this time it really is over.”
March 2020?
Total fear. Best buying opportunity in a decade.
June 2022?
Sentiment in the gutter. Ethereum went 10x off that bottom.
January 2019?
Crypto was a punchline. That was the start of a generational run.
And now here we are again — that same familiar fear hanging over the market like fog.
If you’re waiting for comfort, you will miss the opportunity.
If you’re waiting for confirmation, you will pay more.
If you’re waiting for someone to ring a bell and say “bottom’s in,” you will be buying from someone who didn’t need reassurance.
Returns don’t come from comfort.
Returns come from buying when everyone else is emotionally incapable of thinking straight.
That doesn’t mean aping blindly, and it doesn’t mean ignoring risk. But if you believe in the long-term fundamentals of crypto, then moments like this — when sentiment is scorched earth — have historically delivered the best entries of the entire cycle.
The market is designed to make you uncomfortable right before it rewards the people who aren’t ruled by fear.
You don’t get the penthouse if you’re only willing to pay rent when it feels safe.
Crypto Trivia: Kim Kardashian’s Crypto Promotion
Wall Street Isn’t Warning You, But This Chart Might
Vanguard just projected public markets may return only 5% annually over the next decade. In a 2024 report, Goldman Sachs forecasted the S&P 500 may return just 3% annually for the same time frame—stats that put current valuations in the 7th percentile of history.
Translation? The gains we’ve seen over the past few years might not continue for quite a while.
Meanwhile, another asset class—almost entirely uncorrelated to the S&P 500 historically—has overall outpaced it for decades (1995-2024), according to Masterworks data.
Masterworks lets everyday investors invest in shares of multimillion-dollar artworks by legends like Banksy, Basquiat, and Picasso.
And they’re not just buying. They’re exiting—with net annualized returns like 17.6%, 17.8%, and 21.5% among their 23 sales.*
Wall Street won’t talk about this. But the wealthy already are. Shares in new offerings can sell quickly but…
*Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Important Reg A disclosures: masterworks.com/cd.
Today’s Report
The Billionaire Who Wants to Replace Politicians with Markets
🚨 Our Report
The veteran trader‑poker‑sensai Jeff Yass believes that prediction markets aren’t a niche side‑bet—they could reshape geopolitics, stop wars, and expose the lies politicians tell with astounding effectiveness. He argues that if we had market‑based odds on outcomes like the Iraq war cost, even that bloc might have said “uh, maybe not,” rather than marching ahead blind. Meanwhile, the market structure of these platforms still shows momentum effects and behavioral quirks, meaning they’re not immune to human weirdness—even as they promise clarity. So yes: Yass is pitching prediction markets as a high‑stakes decision‑tool, not just a gambling parlor.
🔓 Key Points
Yass suggests that prediction markets could have flagged past disasters by pricing in proper odds. He used the Iraq war’s multi‑trillion $ cost as an example—implying that if a market had set the number, decision‑makers might have thought twice.
He sees these markets as a way to “slow down the lies that politicians are constantly telling.”
Studies show prediction markets play out like conventional markets: e.g., if a contract ticks up one day, it’s more likely to tick up the next—so momentum and behavioral biases still apply.
Yass is faithful to market discipline: “If you can’t make money, you may want to consider being quiet. Maybe the market knows more than you do.”
The article also points to broader applications: not just politics, but tech, insurance, even interpersonal decisions (yes, weirdly, dating).
Prediction markets are increasingly entering the crypto/DeFi conversation as new protocols and tokens build in mechanics around forecasting and futures.
🔐 Relevance
Here’s why it matters for crypto‑savvy readers (you didn't come here for fluff):
Infrastructure alignment — The mechanics of prediction markets overlap significantly with tokenized futures, DAOs, and on‑chain governance. If someone like Yass is bullish on their utility, the infrastructure builds might benefit.
Risk & reward frameworks — Yass tailors the lens: this isn’t “let’s gamble for fun,” it’s “let’s price risk properly and make decisions accordingly.” That’s a useful discipline in crypto land where narratives often outrun math.
Behavioral edge still exists — The fact that momentum and bias creep into prediction markets means that traders can exploit it. So if you’re in tokenized prediction platforms, the game is still arbitrage + psychology, not just pure logic.
Macro implications — If prediction markets mature, they might begin to influence broad capital flows: political risk becomes market‑priced, and that could shift where money goes. Crypto isn’t insulated from that.
Caution flag — Even Yass’s futuristic vision doesn’t mean the field is solved. Prediction markets are still subject to manipulation, thin liquidity, regulatory risk (hello SEC), and mispricing of low‑probability events. Don’t confuse “potential” with “profit guaranteed.”
Bottom line: Yass is betting on prediction markets as one of the next big leverage points in decision‑making and capital allocation. For anyone in crypto, DeFi, token design, or trading, the take‑away is clear: pay attention to how these tools evolve, but don’t assume they're risk‑free. The market won’t hand you an edge—it hands you an opportunity. Use rigorous thinking, not hype.
Today’s Top News
HEADLINES
Bitcoin Approaches ‘Death Cross’ as Market Tests Major Historical Pattern — Bitcoin is down ~25% from its October high and the 50-day moving average is about to cross below the 200-day — a textbook bearish signal that could spook retail and institutional investors alike.
Ethereum ETFs Bleed $1.4B, Ether Price Plunges 8% — Ethereum ETFs saw $1.4 billion in outflows last week, and price action reflects it. Long-term holders are dumping, which suggests some are losing faith in the asset’s near-term narrative.
Harvard University Boosts Its BlackRock Bitcoin ETF Investment to $442.8 M — Harvard is doubling down on crypto exposure through BlackRock’s ETF — a huge signal of institutional confidence at a time when retail is rattled.
Lawyer Breaks Silence on Trump’s Mysterious Pardon of CZ — New details emerge about Trump’s quiet pardon of Binance’s CZ. A formal multi-agency review allegedly cleared the path, stirring legal and political controversy.
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Market Trendline
PRICE ACTION
The crypto market is treading water: total market cap still around the low‑$3 trillion mark with 24‑hour volume modestly elevated. Bitcoin (BTC) held firm just under ~US $93,000 while Ethereum (ETH) is trading near ~US $3,020 and down roughly 2.6 % in the last day.
There’s no gleaming bull surge. Instead we’re dealing with muted pull‑back and sideways drifting.
Key dominances: BTC ~57 %, ETH ~11.4 % of the ecosystem.
Notable Movers
BTC: The largest asset remains stuck in a waiting game. No breakout, no breakdown yet. Some intra‑day wiggles (highs near $96k) but ultimately closed lower.
ETH: Under pressure with a ~2.6 % drop in 24h. The fact that it’s underperforming BTC this stretch may matter: signal that “smart‑money” is leaning back or just risk‑off.
Small‑cap / niche tokens: While data is fuzzy, gainers‑losers lists show pockets of interesting green (certain layer‑2s, DeFi tokens) but nothing that looks system‑wide or conviction‑heavy.
Macro View
The tone? Hesitation. With global risk appetite tepid, crypto is behaving more like a risk asset waiting for a catalyst than trending on its own. Factors in play:
Interest‑rate expectations still bouncing around, which determines how attractive non‑yielding assets like crypto are.
On‑chain data remains okay but not flashy — no major network fireworks.
Investors appear more inclined to sit in cash or stablecoins rather than load up until something forces conviction.
Bottom Line
Crypto’s hitting pause—not crash, not boom. BTC and ETH are digesting prior gains and looking for direction. Until a strong catalyst (regulation, macro surprise, protocol event) breaks the stalemate, expect choppy trading and low conviction.
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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.