In partnership with
Good morning and welcome to the Hodl Report
Jerome Powell is holding the scissors, but I’m betting he’s too chicken to cut and I’m telling you exactly how I’m doing it.
Meanwhile, Kanye did what Kanye does—dropped a token, sparked a frenzy, then left the chart looking like a ski slope. Just another totally normal day in crypto. Let’s talk trades, rate games, and how Ye managed to out-volatility the Fed.
Before we dive in, give our sponsor a click below to help support Hodl.
Find out why 1M+ professionals read Superhuman AI daily.
AI won't take over the world. People who know how to use AI will.
Here's how to stay ahead with AI:
Sign up for Superhuman AI. The AI newsletter read by 1M+ pros.
Master AI tools, tutorials, and news in just 3 minutes a day.
Become 10X more productive using AI.
Editors Corner
Powell Scared To Cut? I’m Betting He Is
I’ve taken a contrarian position on the Fed decision in september. Currently the market is pricing the chance of rate cuts at 62% yes 38% no. Based on the Feds inflation numbers and trending direction (not to mention Powell clearly doesn’t want to help Trump) I think its highly unlikely that he will cut rates next month unless something in the data changes drastically in the next couple weeks.
How I’m playing this:
I’m taking a position on NO on “Cut 25bps” prior to Powell speaking today (Friday) at 10am Eastern. If his speech is dovish and indicates rate cuts this bet will drop back down to the mid-teens probability and I will most likely cut my losses and exit. However, if he talks about inflation and is more hawkish this 60/40 bet will flip flop. If that happens I am solidly positioned for a potential 2.5x in mid September.
Do your own diligence. This is not an investment but a bet that I think is mispriced and offers +EV.
If you decide to follow along you can do so at Kalshi. Sign up with the link below and you’ll get $10 for free.
Today’s Report
Kanye’s $YZY Hits $3B Before Crashing
Our Report
Ye—once adamant that “coins prey on fans”—just did a 180 and launched a memecoin anyway. The YZY token dropped on Solana with nothing but a cheeky post, promptly rocketing to a $3 billion valuation before shedding two-thirds of its value as insiders cashed out. On-chain sleuths flagged suspicious wallets that turned small buys into seven-figure wins, some eerily tied to past grifts like the LIBRA launch. All signs point to a familiar game: celebrity token, meme frenzy, insiders profit, retail loses. But this time, the fallout might fuel the next big push for crypto regulation.
Key Points
Meteoric rise, dramatic fall: YZY soared to a $3 billion market cap before crashing hard within hours.
Highly “centralized” launch: Only 20% of supply hit the open market, 10% went to liquidity, and a massive 70% remains locked under Yeezy Investments LLC.
Insider jackpot: One wallet flipped $450K into $1.39M in USDC. Another turned a $2.28M buy into over $8M in unrealized gains.
Sniper déjà vu: A wallet linked to the LIBRA launch also showed up here, suggesting a coordinated insider pattern with over $23M extracted between both tokens.
Token mechanics gymnastics: A 25-contract setup was apparently intended to foil bots—yet insiders still got in early.
Regulatory radar activated: This mess practically writes the script for stricter oversight, especially with retail getting burned (again).
Relevance
If there’s one constant in the memecoin multiverse, it’s that celebrity + hype = retail heartbreak. Ye’s entry into tokenomics territory doesn’t just echo past gimmicks—it amplifies them. From disproportionate insider allocations to suspect pre-launch trades, this was never about community building. It was a liquidity harvest dressed as fan engagement.
The bigger picture? This debacle lands squarely in the regulators’ crosshairs. With patterns emerging across multiple celebrity launches, lawmakers will have ample ammunition to argue for tighter guardrails. Meanwhile, traders chasing the next shiny thing might want to pause and ask: if a token spikes 10x in an hour, who already got paid?
Ye’s pivot from critic to coin-dropper is ironic enough. But the real punchline? Everyone saw it coming—and it still worked.
Today’s Top News
Headlines
Bitcoin dips while Ethereum, Solana, and XRP gain amid Powell speech anticipation; Ye’s meme coin stirs regulation debate — Bitcoin dropped slightly to $113,858, while Ethereum, Solana, and XRP posted modest gains. Markets are watching Fed Chair Powell’s upcoming Jackson Hole speech for monetary policy cues. Separately, Kanye West's new Solana-based meme coin, “YZY Money,” has sparked renewed concerns in Washington over altcoin credibility.
Asia’s wealthy increase crypto holdings amid rising performance and regulatory clarity — High-net-worth investors and family offices in Asia are allocating more to crypto, encouraged by robust fund returns and friendlier regulations. Singapore’s crypto equity funds are attracting large sums, while Hong Kong and U.S. laws provide clearer frameworks. Platforms across the region are reporting spikes in usage and trading volumes.
Ripple-SEC settlement and Clarity Act proposal boost altcoin outlook under Trump-friendly policies — Ripple’s $125 million settlement with the SEC clears major legal overhangs, while a proposed Clarity Act would distinguish commodities from securities in the digital asset space. This benefits tokens like XRP, Ether, and Solana, potentially disadvantaging low-utility meme coins. Financial advisors are also promoting crypto ETFs as safer exposure.
Tether hires former Trump crypto advisor to lead U.S. strategy as stablecoin regulation tightens — Bo Hines, once Trump’s crypto council head, joins Tether to guide U.S. policy and regulatory strategy. Tether is adapting to the GENIUS Act, which mandates transparency and full backing of stablecoins. The move signals a strategic shift toward compliance and institutional legitimacy in a historically opaque firm.
Market Trendline
Price Action
Crypto is in risk-off mode, but not in freefall. Bitcoin's retrace is orderly, not panic-fueled. Ethereum’s got a pulse. The rest of the market? Mostly watching and waiting.
Market Overview
Total market cap dipped ~1.5% as BTC lost ground.
BTC trading near $112K, down ~8% from local highs.
ETH up ~3%, showing relative strength amid the slump.
BTC dominance remains elevated around 58–59%.
Notable Movers
Ethereum (ETH): Quietly outperforming with +3% in 24 hours. Institutions seem to be sniffing around its role in stablecoin infra. No fireworks—just steady inflows.
Chainlink (LINK): Gave back recent gains, down ~5% after a short-lived rally. Volume spiked but momentum vanished.
Solana (SOL): +3% on light volume. Still tracking broader beta moves.
XRP: Modest uptick (~+1%), likely riding Ethereum’s coattails more than anything.
Macro View
Powell’s upcoming Jackson Hole speech is the macro elephant. Rate cut bets are cooling, and crypto’s adjusting.
BTC’s slide isn’t broad-market contagion—yet. Feels more like a positioning cleanse than a trend reversal.
Bottom Line
Bitcoin’s down but not out. Ethereum’s resilience is noteworthy, especially with macro pressure building. Altcoins are chopping, not trending. Everyone’s bracing for Jackson Hole. If Powell blinks dovish, expect risk to rip. If not, more drift.
Today’s Top Tweet
Crypto Twitter Never Sleeps
Oopsie … fam next time pls don’t let me trade shitters like $YZY. Should have just kept two-steppin.
— #Arthur Hayes (#@CryptoHayes)
6:35 AM • Aug 21, 2025
How'd I do this week?
Are you a crypto trader?
I have two products designed to help traders. Check them out if you are looking for an edge or just to learn to become a more successful trader!
You made it to the bottom, congrats! I really appreciate you reading. If you enjoyed today’s content please share it with a friend and if you aren’t already subscribed please do!
DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.