Welcome to this weeks Alpha List
Pump.fun is up 17% since we said it was a good buy last week. However, we think it still has a lot of room to run. This week I’ve got a deeper dive into $Pump where we break down its market position, why we think this is an asymmetric bet and what the risks are. We’ve also got our Cycle indicators and an update on $MAMO (spoiler its up 80% this week).
Lets dive into our Alpha Indicators first…
Where Are We in the Crypto Cycle?
Trying to time the exact market top is a fool’s errand but everyone will attempt it anyway. While perfection is off the table, preparation isn’t. That’s why we track six proven indicators that tend to blink red before the bear market hits.
They are:
Net Unrealized Profit
MVRV Score
Pi Cycle Top Indicator
Log Scale Regression
Global Liquidity
Business Cycle
Signal Key
🟢 Plenty of upside left
🟡 Froth forming—start taking gains
🔴 Eject button
Think of them as a dashboard, not a crystal ball. No guarantees — just signals that help you exit the party before the lights come on.
1. Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) 🟡
NUPL tracks the markets unrealized P&L. When the ratio tops 0.7 and flips blue, history says we’re skating on thin ice. We’re edging there—smart money trims, not prays.
2. MVRV Z-Score 🟢
Compares market value to realized value. Red-zone spikes = classic tops; green dives = bear-market yard sales. We’re comfortably mid-channel for now, implying more runway.
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