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Good morning and welcome to the Hodl Report
What if I told you crypto actually wins—and Wall Street still finds a way to lose? While maxis daydream about decentralized dominance, crypto stocks just took a nosedive so hard even the miners are digging for excuses. In today’s Hodl Report, we’re asking the big “what if”... and also watching the market do its best impression of a piñata at a VC birthday party. Let’s unpack it.
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Editors Corner
What If Crypto Actually Wins?
We spend so much time hoping crypto will win — that one day, fiat collapses, governments shrink, and code replaces trust. But lately I’ve been wondering… what happens if it actually does?
Like, really think about it. No central banks. No intermediaries. No “trusted” third parties. Just unstoppable code, transparent ledgers, and financial sovereignty for everyone.
Sounds amazing, right? Until you realize most people can’t even remember their Netflix password.
Crypto winning means total ownership — but also total responsibility. No chargebacks. No “forgot password.” No benevolent overseer to bail out the idiots (i.e., us). It’s financial freedom, sure — but freedom’s a double-edged sword when 90% of the population still clicks phishing links.
And what does “winning” even look like? Bitcoin becomes the world reserve asset? Stablecoins replace dollars? DAOs govern cities? At some point, the cypherpunk dream starts to look a lot like a Black Mirror episode.
Maybe crypto’s endgame isn’t to replace the system, but to pressure it — to force transparency, competition, and optionality. Maybe the victory isn’t overthrowing the banks… it’s making them behave.
Either way, we’re still early in this weird social experiment. The rails are being built, the rules are being written, and the dream’s still alive.
So yeah — I hope crypto wins.
But I also hope we’re ready for what that actually means.
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Today’s Report
Crypto Stocks Crater as Miners Lead Market Meltdown
🚨 Our Report
Stocks tied to crypto and AI infrastructure got walloped today, with the vibe check firmly turned to “pain.” The mining‑heavy cohort — especially names like Galaxy Digital Holdings Ltd. (GLXY) and various bitcoin miners — led the tumble. Meanwhile, Bitcoin remains in the $108,000 zone, having dropped from ~$114,000 just yesterday. The broader market, including AI‑related chips and momentum stocks, also didn’t escape unscathed. Risk‑on mood? Nope — risk‑off marched in loud and clear.
🔓 Key Points
Galaxy Digital fell ~15%, wiping out recent earnings gains and dragging the rest of the “crypto + AI” stocks along with it.
Bitcoin mining companies such as Bitfarms Ltd. (BITF), Hut 8 Mining Corp. (HUT), and Cipher Mining Inc. (CIFR) are down 10‑15% in a single session.
The mining‑sector proxy, the CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI), is off about 7%.
The so‑called “AI / HPC” play among crypto miners appears to be cooling: their combined market cap peaked around $95 billion and has dropped to ~$82 billion.
Other crypto‑adjacent stocks aren’t spared: Bakkt Holdings, Inc. (BKKT) is down ~7.5% today and ~40% lower over the past week; MicroStrategy Incorporated (MSTR) dropped ~4%.
Despite the equity carnage, Bitcoin itself stayed in the $108k region, down but holding for now.
🔐 Relevance
Here’s where the chessboard matters: the steep dive in crypto‑mining and infrastructure stocks signals a broader questioning of the “miner as AI‑infrastructure provider” narrative that had investors excited. These firms were riding two waves — bitcoin’s run + AI infrastructure hype — and now the second wave is visibly losing steam. For traders, this is a classic strat shift: if you're long miners because of AI and quick bitcoin‑bets, you’re getting handed a correction.
Bitcoin holding $108k means the spot market hasn’t melted down, but equities are being treated like a high‑beta bet thrashed by macro/tech risk. The disconnect tells us: risk appetite among crypto‑adjacent equities is lower today, while on‑chain risk for bitcoin itself remains separate. For savvy investors, this is an opportunity to differentiate: spot crypto vs. crypto exposure via stocks. The latter is clearly paying a “risk premium” now — one that may only recede when we see either fresh upside in bitcoin or a renewed AI‑infrastructure contract wave.
If the market starts sniffing more contraction in AI infrastructure spending or more macro fear, expect further pain for these names — especially those whose narratives hinge on “we’ll make coin by selling AI datacenters.” Meanwhile, holding bitcoin? That remains its own beast. The broader takeaway: narrative-driven premiums can evaporate quickly — and today was a reminder.
Today’s Top News
HEADLINES
Money‑losing companies with colorful histories have pivoted to crypto — Over 200 public companies with weak fundamentals have rebranded around crypto holdings or digital‑asset treasuries (DATs). While this boosts crypto demand superficially, it raises concerns about corporate sincerity and systemic risk of mis‑aligned incentives.
Bitcoin, Ethereum Fall Again. Melania Trump’s Crypto Architects Accused of Fraud. — Alongside price weakness in major tokens, a fraud case involving the meme‑coin “$MELANIA” has emerged, tied to prominent political branding. This kind of scandal can damage broader industry reputation and increase regulatory scrutiny of crypto‑assets with tangled promotional links.
Federal Reserve’s Crypto Embrace and Rate Cut Hopes Spark “Explosion” Predictions for XRP, ETH, and ADA — Analysts are forecasting large upside for major alt‑coins like XRP, Ethereum (ETH) and Cardano (ADA), spurred by a more friendly tone from the Federal Reserve Board and expectations of rate cuts. If correct, this could stimulate a renewed crypto rally tied to macro‑monetary policy.
UK regulator sues crypto exchange HTX over unlawful promotions — The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in the UK has filed civil suit against HTX (formerly Huobi) alleging unauthorized promotions of crypto‑services to UK consumers. This enforcement action highlights rising global regulatory pressure and is likely to raise caution across exchanges operating internationally.
Crypto markets extend fall, Bitcoin trades at $108,000, Ethereum at $3,800 — Even amid earlier rallies, the crypto market is showing signs of renewed weakness with Bitcoin (BTC) around $108k and Ethereum down as well. This kind of volatility may force more cautious behaviour among investors and could delay bullish sentiment.
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Market Trendline
PRICE ACTION
Crypto’s back in “up only” mode—at least for today. Total market cap nudged up 3%, with majors leading the charge and altcoins catching a second wind. It’s a low-volume grind, but price action is leaning risk-on again.
Market Overview
Total market cap reclaimed ~$1.2T, up 3% on the day
Bitcoin dominance sits around 51.7%, holding steady as a bellwether
Volume remains tepid, which means price moves are still walking on stilts
Notable Movers
Bitcoin (+3.5%): Grinding higher and flirting with key resistance. No fireworks, but it’s dragging the rest of the market with it.
Ethereum (+5%): Outperforming BTC again. L2 buzz and staking flows might be helping ETH regain some narrative strength.
Solana (+7%): This week’s golden child. Traders are clearly rotating back into high-beta plays, and SOL’s getting the nod.
Cardano (+6.2%): Rising on Solana’s coattails. No obvious catalyst, just beta-chasing in alt-L1s.
Macro View
No major headlines drove today’s move—this feels like organic reaccumulation after last week’s dip. Risk-appetite is up, but conviction still looks light. Alts leading suggests traders are willing to stretch, but they’re doing it selectively.
Bottom Line
The market’s ticking higher, but it’s not a full send. Bitcoin’s holding court while ETH and SOL steal attention. Until volume confirms, this rally is more about positioning than conviction. Cautiously bullish—for now.
Today’s Top Tweet
TWITTER NEVER SLEEPS
The big flip happening now. Now looking for BTC to outperform gold into year end. Just sold some gold futures and bought some BTCs.
— #Mel Mattison (#@MelMattison1)
1:25 AM • Oct 17, 2025
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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.