Good morning and welcome to the Hodl Report
Editors Corner
Why Crashes Create Better Investors
Bull markets reward optimism.
Crashes reward honesty.
When prices are going up, mistakes hide easily. Bad theses work. Weak risk management looks smart. Everyone feels like a genius.
Then the market turns and suddenly nothing is masked anymore.
Crashes force clarity.
They make you ask uncomfortable questions:
Do I actually understand what I own?
Was this conviction or just momentum?
Am I investing, or just hoping?
Most people hate crashes because they expose gaps in thinking.
That’s exactly why they matter.
The best investors aren’t born in bull markets.
They’re forged in drawdowns — when emotion is high, feedback is brutal, and excuses stop working.
Crashes teach discipline.
They teach patience.
They teach the difference between believing in something and being blindly attached to it.
Anyone can make money when everything goes up.
Very few learn how to survive, adapt, and think clearly when everything goes down.
That’s why crashes feel painful — but valuable.
They don’t just reset prices.
They reset investors.
And the ones who learn the lesson are usually the ones still standing when the next cycle begins.
Crypto Trivia: Bitcoin Survives the China Ban
Today’s Report
ARK’s $28 Trillion Crypto Thesis: Why Bitcoin and Tokenization Are About to Eat Finance

🚨 Our Report
ARK Invest is done talking about crypto as a speculative sideshow. In its latest outlook, the firm argues that the next phase of digital-asset growth will be driven by two grown-up forces: Bitcoin’s institutional entrenchment and the large-scale tokenization of real-world assets. The pitch is bold — a digital-asset ecosystem swelling to roughly $28 trillion by 2030, with Bitcoin commanding the lion’s share. This isn’t about the next hype cycle or app-chain narrative. It’s about crypto quietly installing itself as the financial system’s backend while TradFi argues over the user interface.
🔓Key Points
Bitcoin as the anchor: ARK sees Bitcoin evolving into a global monetary asset and institutional reserve, potentially capturing around 70% of total digital-asset value over time. This puts BTC less in the “risk-on trade” bucket and more in the “macro infrastructure” category.
Tokenization takes center stage: Real-world assets — bonds, funds, real estate, and more — are expected to migrate on-chain at scale. ARK projects tokenized assets could reach double-digit trillions in value, transforming blockchains into settlement layers for global markets.
ETFs change the game: Spot Bitcoin ETFs and institutional custody solutions are reframing how capital accesses crypto, smoothing volatility and pulling BTC into traditional portfolio construction.
DeFi grows up: The next chapter of decentralized finance isn’t about mercenary yield. It’s about fee-generating protocols, financial primitives, and programmable markets that compete with — and sometimes replace — legacy financial rails.
Volatility compression: As institutional ownership rises, ARK argues Bitcoin’s volatility profile continues to decline, reinforcing its credibility as a long-term asset rather than a speculative toy.
🔐 Relevance
ARK’s thesis reads like a quiet obituary for crypto’s adolescence. The era of attention-driven narratives — memecoins, viral chains, and ephemeral yields — isn’t gone, but it’s no longer the main event. The real money is positioning for infrastructure dominance, not overnight pumps.
Tokenization is the sleeper catalyst here. If even a fraction of global securities move on-chain, blockchains stop being “alternative finance” and start becoming default financial plumbing. Settlement speed, transparency, and composability aren’t marketing slogans — they’re structural advantages. That’s what brings in pension funds, asset managers, and sovereign allocators who don’t care about vibes, only efficiency and risk control.
Bitcoin’s role in this vision is equally telling. ARK isn’t pitching BTC as digital gold for retail traders; it’s framing it as collateral, reserve asset, and macro hedge inside an increasingly tokenized economy. That’s a much slower story — and a much bigger one.
Of course, this future isn’t guaranteed. Regulatory clarity, compliant custody, and issuer participation are non-negotiable. Tokenization doesn’t scale on vibes alone. But if ARK is right, crypto’s next bull market won’t feel like the last ones. It’ll feel quieter, heavier, and far more institutional — which is exactly how real adoption tends to arrive.
Today’s Top News
HEADLINES
U.S. Senate Delays Major Crypto Bill as Priorities Shift — Key U.S. crypto legislation has been delayed, extending regulatory uncertainty. Stablecoin and market-structure clarity remain unresolved. Firms may pause expansion plans pending clearer rules.
Ledger Plans $4B New York Listing — Hardware wallet giant Ledger is preparing a U.S. listing that could value it above $4B. A successful IPO would be a milestone for crypto infrastructure firms. It also signals sustained institutional demand for custody and security.
$2.3 Billion in Bitcoin & Ethereum Options Expire — Volatility Looms — Roughly $2.3B in BTC and ETH options are expiring, setting the stage for sharp price swings. Large expiries can trigger gamma effects and forced hedging. Short-term volatility risk is elevated.
Iran’s Central Bank Using Cryptocurrency to Circumvent Sanctions — Reports suggest Iran is using crypto, including stablecoins, to bypass sanctions. The story highlights crypto’s geopolitical implications. Expect increased scrutiny on stablecoin compliance and enforcement.
Galaxy to Launch $100M Crypto Hedge Fund — Galaxy is launching a $100M hedge fund aimed at exploiting dislocations in crypto markets. The move signals selective institutional confidence despite the downturn. Volatility is increasingly viewed as an opportunity.
Market Trendline
PRICE ACTION
Bitcoin is stuck in neutral. After flirting with the $90K handle, BTC faded back toward the high-$80Ks and spent the session chopping sideways. Volatility showed up, conviction didn’t. Ethereum followed the script, slipping back below $3K and continuing to lag BTC on a relative basis.
Market Overview
The broader market leaned soft over the past 24 hours. Total market cap drifted lower, volumes thinned, and traders largely chose to de-risk rather than press fresh bets. Bitcoin dominance crept higher — a classic sign that capital is rotating out of alts and into perceived safety. This isn’t panic selling; it’s apathy with a bearish bias.
Notable Movers
Bitcoin (BTC): Range-bound between roughly $88.5K and $90K. Sellers consistently show up near the round number, while buyers lack urgency below. This is consolidation, not collapse — but it’s heavy consolidation.
Ethereum (ETH): Underperformed BTC, sliding toward the low-$2.9Ks. Smart-contract chains broadly bled as traders trimmed exposure, signaling risk-off positioning rather than protocol-specific issues.
Altcoins: Mid-caps and high-beta names took the worst of it. Liquidity thinned fast, and many charts look like slow leaks rather than sharp dumps — the kind of action that exhausts bulls quietly.
Macro View
Crypto is once again taking its cues from macro uncertainty. Trade tensions, regulatory ambiguity, and broader risk-asset hesitation are keeping sidelined capital exactly that: sidelined. No major on-chain catalyst has stepped in to break the stalemate.
Bottom Line
Nothing’s broken — but nothing’s working either. BTC and ETH are holding structure, yet momentum is fading across the rest of the market. Until a real catalyst shows up, expect more chop, lower-quality rallies, and a continued bias toward capital preservation over hero trades.
How'd I do this week?
You made it to the bottom, congrats! I really appreciate you reading. If you enjoyed today’s content please share it with a friend and if you aren’t already subscribed please do!
DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.
1