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Hey,
It’s a short week and I’m sitting on my hands. With the Fed on deck, markets can whip around like a meme coin chart, and that’s not when you want to get cute with new positions. Big macro weeks are made for patience, not hero trades.
No fresh picks this week—but I do want to dig into something I actually am using: prediction markets. Platforms like Kalshi are quietly becoming one of my favorite tools, and I’ll walk you through how I use them (and how you can, too) to tilt odds in your favor.
And a quick portfolio note: as I mentioned yesterday, we’ve taken some profits on the $PUMP play from July. Locked in 3x, pulled my original at $0.0075, and letting the rest ride. I’ll keep you posted if I trim further.
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How to Play Prediction Markets
Alright let’s talk about the degenerate casino that’s suddenly looking like the next big sticky vertical in crypto: prediction markets.
If you’ve been paying attention, they’re everywhere. Polymarket. Kalshi. People betting on whether Powell sneezes twice at FOMC or if Taylor Swift gets another NFL boyfriend. CT is flooded with this stuff.
As an Alpha List sub you already know I use prediction markets. The very first Alpha List issue was about a Polymarket trade. But the reason I’m revisiting this now is because the “smart money” is rotating into the space. And unlike the usual pump-and-dump flavor-of-the-month, prediction markets might actually stick around.
Where Things Stand
Here’s the funny part: all of crypto is basically one big prediction market.
Hyperliquid perps? Betting on price.
PumpFun? Betting on whether a meme makes it to $100M.
Buying BTC? You’re making a prediction.
But let’s narrow this down, when I say prediction markets, I’m talking about platforms that let you bet directly on real-world outcomes—elections, sports, court cases, celebrity drama.
Polymarket is the undisputed king. $200M raised. Now legal in the U.S. Partnered with X. Their sports vertical is blowing up, and I wouldn’t be shocked if you’re placing bets directly inside X by year-end.
Kalshi is the buttoned-up #2—clean, regulated, funded to the gills. After that it’s a bunch of niche contenders (Melee, OpinionsFun, Noise, etc.) trying to find traction.
Why am I bullish? Because unlike NFTs or memecoins, the content firehose never stops. There will always be elections, sports, and pop culture nonsense. It’s a perpetual narrative machine.
How to Win
You don’t need to be a psychic. You just need to play the structure. Here are 5 ways to tilt the odds in your favor and get paid:
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