Every time someone throws out the idea of Bitcoin hitting $1 million, the average person reacts like you just told them the moon landing was filmed on a soundstage. A million bucks? For one internet coin? Backed by what, Reddit memes and laser eyes?

But here’s the kicker: a $1M Bitcoin is actually the conservative case.

Let’s zoom out. Jesse Myers (aka “Croesus” on Twitter) popularized this Total Addressable Market framework that basically asks: what’s the universe of assets people use to store value? Spoiler: it’s everything you already know.

Add it all up and you’ve got roughly $1 quadrillion worth of “please don’t inflate me into oblivion” assets.

Now here’s the magic trick: all of those assets—except Bitcoin—can be inflated. Governments can print more money, corporations can issue more shares, miners can dig up more gold, and developers can crank out more McMansions. Bitcoin? Hard-capped at 21 million, take it or leave it.

So how does Bitcoin hit $1M? Easy math: it only needs to capture 2.1% of the Store-of-Value pie. That’s $21 trillion. Divide that by 21 million coins, and voilà—$1,000,000 BTC.

And people like Mark Moss think this could happen by 2030. Honestly, that’s not moon-boy math—it’s boring, back-of-the-napkin math.

And don’t forget: the pie itself is expanding. Fiat supply grows ~7% a year, M2 doubled in the last decade, and every extra dollar sloshing into the system makes people chase harder assets. Bitcoin’s slice and the pie itself are both getting bigger.

So yeah, when you hear “$1M Bitcoin,” don’t think moon landing. Think—“wow, that’s the lowball.”

Our Report
Alex Mashinsky, the cofounder and ex-CEO of Celsius, has just been handed a 12-year prison sentence for fraud tied to the catastrophic collapse of his crypto lending firm. He admitted guilt on two counts—one for securities fraud and one for commodities fraud—after allegedly misleading investors about Celsius’s financial health and using customer deposits to drive up the value of its CEL token. Celsius, once managing roughly $25 billion at its peak, froze withdrawals during the crypto crash of 2022, locking up massive sums and ultimately filing for bankruptcy. Prosecutors say Mashinsky lined his pockets while retail customers lost billions.

Key Points

Relevance

This case lands like a landmine in crypto regulation history—and not just because Mashinsky now has serious time ahead. First, it signals that U.S. prosecutors are ready and willing to go after high-profile crypto executives, not just ambiguous entities or protocol developers. The charges around misleading statements and token price manipulation reinforce that “crypto laws are fuzzy” is no longer an acceptable defense.

For investors and institutions, this raises the stakes on due diligence: claims about solvency, reserve backing, tokenomics—these will be under microscopic scrutiny. Projects will need airtight transparency, especially when customer funds are involved. For regulators, it offers a compelling example to justify tougher oversight of crypto lenders and custodial platforms.

In narrative terms, we’re moving away from crypto “Wild West” myths and toward accountability. The promise that crypto would disrupt finance without inheriting the same legal fallouts? That promise is under strain. For the market, this could mean more conservative valuations for platforms that can’t convincingly demonstrate regulatory compliance, risk management, or financial integrity. And for the typical user—if your platform is opaque or behaves like it’s above the rules—this case should be a red flag.

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Crypto is in a tighten-up mode. Bitcoin’s been consolidating in the $114K–$116K range with signs of buying pressure creeping back in — but so far, no decisive breakout above resistance. ETH is weaker in comparison, lagging and under pressure as macro headwinds persist. Key drivers right now are regulatory cues, institutional interest, and protocol upgrades rather than retail hype.

Crypto is building tension. Bitcoin is stuck in a narrow band that’s likely to decide the near‑term tone, while SOL looks more likely to break away thanks to its multiple positive drivers. If macro and regulatory winds stay favorable, we could see a strong tilt toward alt seasonal behavior. But a slip in macro (e.g., hawkish Fed surprise or regulatory misstep) could drag everything back, given elevated valuations and stretched expectations.

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