Most coverage tells you what happened. Fintech Takes is the free newsletter that tells you why it matters. Each week, I break down the trends, deals, and regulatory shifts shaping the industry — minus the spin. Clear analysis, smart context, and a little humor so you actually enjoy reading it.

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Here’s a weird thought: what if we already had a recession last year and just didn’t notice?

Bloomberg’s chief economist Anna Wong thinks that’s exactly what happened. The latest labor market revisions showed the U.S. actually created about 900k fewer jobs than we thought between 2024 and early 2025. Her take? The business cycle peaked around April 2024, bottomed earlier this year, and we’re now back at the start of a new cycle.

I’m not totally sold on calling it a “recession” (we never had two negative GDP quarters), but honestly, it did feel like something broke. Remember that 21% S&P sell-off back in March? Everyone was miserable. The S&P basically went nowhere from April ’24 to April ’25. And crypto (outside of bitcoin) flatlined for a year. That’s recession-ish enough for me.

What’s more interesting is where we are now. Earnings revisions, fund manager sentiment, growth expectations—they all show the same pattern: peak in 2024, trough in early 2025, now rebounding. That’s early cycle.

If that’s right, then risk assets are in for a run. Stocks, crypto, the whole lot. And here’s the kicker: anyone banking on a late-2025 “end of cycle” top is probably going to be early. If this is a fresh cycle, it likely runs through 2026, maybe even 2027.

So yeah, call it a stealth reset. We already had the downturn. The question now is: are you set up for the rebound?

Our Report

SEC Chair Paul Atkins has signaled a more gradual approach: under his leadership, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission will reportedly notify companies before acting on “technical violations,” rather than immediately launching enforcement actions. The change aims to give businesses clearer expectations and more due process. He critiques previous SEC behavior as unpredictable — “shoot first and ask questions later.” Meanwhile, Atkins is pushing forward with plans to issue new rules, especially around crypto, and wants to promote tokenised securities that can trade round‑the‑clock. It’s a shift from Biden‑era crackdowns to what looks like a more lightweight, pro-innovation posture (at least on paper).

Key Points

Relevance & Analysis

Atkins is sending a signal: under his regime, enforcement will (in theory) be less ambush‑oriented. For companies in regulated sectors — especially crypto and token issuers — that’s relief. Instead of waking up to a SEC lawsuit over a technicality, there may be an opportunity to fix or clarify issues. That reduces legal risk, and could improve investor confidence (you know what to expect).

For crypto projects, though, “most tokens are not securities” is a loaded phrase. It may reduce uncertainty, but it also implies that some are, and the line‑drawing of what counts as a “technical violation” vs. substantive violation will matter enormously. Whoever defines “technical,” or what merits notice rather than enforcement, will wield big influence.

The plan to formalize tokenised securities with 24/7 trading is exciting — it dovetails with narratives about financial innovation, blockchain interchangeability, and “tradable liquidity any time.” But implementing that without opening new regulatory vulnerabilities (e.g. market abuse, custody risk, compliance gaps) will be a balancing act.

From a market perspective, this shift could lower legal tail risks for startups and token projects, possibly increasing investment into tokenization; reduce volatility around enforcement announcements, since actions may be preceded by warnings; and encourage more engagement with the SEC during rulemaking, as the predictable framework should make comment periods more meaningful.

Caveats: this is based on statements and agenda, not necessarily finalized rules. Implementation is what counts. Also, what constitutes “technical” is subjective and may still get litigated. There could still be surprise enforcement in edge cases.

Bitcoin is quietly stealing the show in what’s historically been a bearish month. With rate cut odds firming up and exchange inflows drying out, BTC is climbing with surprising composure. Altcoins, on the other hand, are back in their usual September role: disorganized and reactive. The overall tone is cautiously bullish, with a heavy macro overhang—investors are positioning for upside, but keeping the escape hatch in sight.

Bitcoin’s grinding up on strong footing. Ethereum’s lagging but stable. Solana and friends are flirting with froth. The setup is bullish, but brittle. This isn’t euphoria—it’s a calculated risk-on rotation. Keep your stops close.

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