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What if we already had the recession—and just didn't RSVP? Turns out, while everyone was arguing over whether the Fed would land the plane, the market might’ve quietly crashed, burned, rebooted, and taken off again. Meanwhile, the SEC is trying on its “cool uncle” persona, promising to text you before it ruins your project. Early cycle vibes and regulator reform? Feels like someone finally updated the script. Let’s dig in.
Most coverage tells you what happened. Fintech Takes is the free newsletter that tells you why it matters. Each week, I break down the trends, deals, and regulatory shifts shaping the industry — minus the spin. Clear analysis, smart context, and a little humor so you actually enjoy reading it.
Editors Corner
Are We Back in “Early Cycle” Mode?
Here’s a weird thought: what if we already had a recession last year and just didn’t notice?
Bloomberg’s chief economist Anna Wong thinks that’s exactly what happened. The latest labor market revisions showed the U.S. actually created about 900k fewer jobs than we thought between 2024 and early 2025. Her take? The business cycle peaked around April 2024, bottomed earlier this year, and we’re now back at the start of a new cycle.
I’m not totally sold on calling it a “recession” (we never had two negative GDP quarters), but honestly, it did feel like something broke. Remember that 21% S&P sell-off back in March? Everyone was miserable. The S&P basically went nowhere from April ’24 to April ’25. And crypto (outside of bitcoin) flatlined for a year. That’s recession-ish enough for me.
What’s more interesting is where we are now. Earnings revisions, fund manager sentiment, growth expectations—they all show the same pattern: peak in 2024, trough in early 2025, now rebounding. That’s early cycle.
If that’s right, then risk assets are in for a run. Stocks, crypto, the whole lot. And here’s the kicker: anyone banking on a late-2025 “end of cycle” top is probably going to be early. If this is a fresh cycle, it likely runs through 2026, maybe even 2027.
So yeah, call it a stealth reset. We already had the downturn. The question now is: are you set up for the rebound?
Crypto’s First Rugpull
Today’s Report
From Crackdowns to Courtesy Calls: SEC Tries Being the Reasonable Regulator

Our Report
SEC Chair Paul Atkins has signaled a more gradual approach: under his leadership, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission will reportedly notify companies before acting on “technical violations,” rather than immediately launching enforcement actions. The change aims to give businesses clearer expectations and more due process. He critiques previous SEC behavior as unpredictable — “shoot first and ask questions later.” Meanwhile, Atkins is pushing forward with plans to issue new rules, especially around crypto, and wants to promote tokenised securities that can trade round‑the‑clock. It’s a shift from Biden‑era crackdowns to what looks like a more lightweight, pro-innovation posture (at least on paper).
Key Points
Businesses will receive warnings or notices of technical/lesser infractions before the SEC takes harsher enforcement steps.
Atkins acknowledges criticism that prior SEC enforcement lacked consistency. He wants “precedent, predictability, due process.”
The SEC is preparing proposals to tighten or clarify rules around cryptocurrencies. Atkins claims “most tokens are not securities” and is interested in tokenised versions of securities (shares, bonds) usable on blockchain systems with 24/7 trading.
This represents a shift from the previous administration’s tougher approach toward crypto fraud, money laundering, and securities violations.
Relevance & Analysis
Atkins is sending a signal: under his regime, enforcement will (in theory) be less ambush‑oriented. For companies in regulated sectors — especially crypto and token issuers — that’s relief. Instead of waking up to a SEC lawsuit over a technicality, there may be an opportunity to fix or clarify issues. That reduces legal risk, and could improve investor confidence (you know what to expect).
For crypto projects, though, “most tokens are not securities” is a loaded phrase. It may reduce uncertainty, but it also implies that some are, and the line‑drawing of what counts as a “technical violation” vs. substantive violation will matter enormously. Whoever defines “technical,” or what merits notice rather than enforcement, will wield big influence.
The plan to formalize tokenised securities with 24/7 trading is exciting — it dovetails with narratives about financial innovation, blockchain interchangeability, and “tradable liquidity any time.” But implementing that without opening new regulatory vulnerabilities (e.g. market abuse, custody risk, compliance gaps) will be a balancing act.
From a market perspective, this shift could lower legal tail risks for startups and token projects, possibly increasing investment into tokenization; reduce volatility around enforcement announcements, since actions may be preceded by warnings; and encourage more engagement with the SEC during rulemaking, as the predictable framework should make comment periods more meaningful.
Caveats: this is based on statements and agenda, not necessarily finalized rules. Implementation is what counts. Also, what constitutes “technical” is subjective and may still get litigated. There could still be surprise enforcement in edge cases.
Today’s Top News
HEADLINES
Nasdaq Seeks SEC Approval to List Tokenized Securities — Nasdaq filed to begin trading tokenized securities, aiming to integrate blockchain into mainstream capital markets. The move could bridge traditional finance and crypto infrastructure. SEC approval would be a landmark for digital asset legitimacy.
FDIC Eases Crypto Restrictions for Banks — The FDIC rescinded rules requiring banks to notify regulators before engaging in crypto activities. This signals a more permissive stance on digital asset banking. It may accelerate crypto integration into traditional financial institutions.
Treasury Seeks Input on AI and Blockchain for Anti-Crypto Crime — The U.S. Treasury is asking the public for feedback on using AI and blockchain analytics to detect illicit crypto activity. The initiative follows mandates under the GENIUS Act. It could shape future compliance standards for digital assets.
Bitcoin Rallies as Fed Rate Cut Expectations Grow — Bitcoin is up over 7% in September as traders price in potential Fed interest rate cuts. Lower rates historically benefit risk-on assets like crypto. Ethereum and XRP remain relatively stable.
American Bitcoin, Backed by Trump Family, Raises $7B Valuation — A Trump-affiliated mining venture merged with Gryphon Digital Mining, holding $285 million in BTC but claiming a $7 billion valuation. The deal raises questions about political branding in crypto finance. It may draw regulatory attention.
Market Trendline
PRICE ACTION
Bitcoin is quietly stealing the show in what’s historically been a bearish month. With rate cut odds firming up and exchange inflows drying out, BTC is climbing with surprising composure. Altcoins, on the other hand, are back in their usual September role: disorganized and reactive. The overall tone is cautiously bullish, with a heavy macro overhang—investors are positioning for upside, but keeping the escape hatch in sight.
Notable Movers
Bitcoin (BTC)
Up ~8% in September, on track for its best showing this month since 2012. The kicker? Exchange inflows are at yearly lows, signaling reduced sell pressure. Bulls are eyeing a clean breakout above $120K, but it’s bumping into resistance in the $116K–$117K range. Momentum’s intact, but volume is thinning.Ethereum (ETH)
Chopping sideways. Large holders are accumulating, but price isn’t responding with the same conviction as BTC. Support looks solid around $4,500. Resistance around $4,800–$5,000 remains unbroken. ETH feels like it’s waiting for a narrative.Solana (SOL)
Solana’s riding ETF speculation and liquidity tailwinds. It’s outpacing most majors, but showing early signs of fatigue—volume’s slipping, and some sellers are stepping in near $240. Still, it's a favorite for beta-chasing flows.Meme & Microcaps
Select memecoins are ripping again—likely the result of low-float games and retail FOMO. Nothing fundamentally changed here, just a fresh coat of hopium.
Bottom Line
Bitcoin’s grinding up on strong footing. Ethereum’s lagging but stable. Solana and friends are flirting with froth. The setup is bullish, but brittle. This isn’t euphoria—it’s a calculated risk-on rotation. Keep your stops close.
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Today’s Top Meme
MEME GOD

Today’s Top Tweet
TWITTER NEVER SLEEPS
The modern -90% Bitcoin bear market will be in stock tickers, not in the underlying 🌽 price.
The Treasury company fugazi mostly looks like this thread, with a small handful of outliers that are actually serious players.
mNAV Gravity is towards 1.0.
— #_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ (#@_Checkmatey_)
10:02 PM • Sep 15, 2025
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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.