Good morning and welcome to the Hodl Report - where we sift through the hype so your portfolio doesn’t have to.
First up, we’re diving into the shady side of tokenomics: from FDV mirages to yield scams that smell like 2021. If your bags have ever been dumped on by a vesting cliff, you’ll want to read this. Then we’re breaking down the SEC’s ETF bombshell—yep, they just made it way easier to launch crypto ETFs, and Grayscale’s already out the gate with a multi-asset fund. More coins, more access, more chances to win (or completely fumble). Let’s get into it.
Editors Corner
Tokenomics Red Flags: Spot the Ponzi Before It Eats Your Portfolio
Alright, let me be real with you. I’ve been burned by bad tokenomics before. You know that feeling when you ape into a new project, the hype is high, everyone’s posting rocket emojis… and then two weeks later the chart looks like a ski slope? Yeah, been there.
The thing nobody tells you is this: most “innovative” projects don’t die because the tech is bad. They die because the tokenomics are rigged against you from day one. Here’s what I look out for now:
1. The FDV Mirage
Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) is like a Tinder profile pic taken in perfect lighting—it looks good until reality hits. If a coin claims a $10B valuation but only 2% of the tokens are live, it’s a setup. When the other 98% unlock, you’re the liquidity exit.
2. Unlock Schedules That Will Break Your Heart
Check the vesting chart. If the curve looks like a cliff, run. That’s just code for “VCs get to dump on you every month while you cope on Twitter.”
3. Stupid Yields
200% APY? Please. Real yield comes from actual revenue, not a money printer. If rewards are just freshly minted tokens, it’s not yield—it’s musical chairs with extra steps.
4. “Governance Utility”
If the only reason a token exists is so you can vote in some DAO meeting you’ll never attend, it’s probably useless. Call me when voting rights pay the rent.
At this point, I’ve learned to ask three simple questions before touching a coin: Who’s getting tokens? When do they get to sell? And what’s the actual reason this thing should exist? If I can’t answer those in plain English, I stay out.
Because here’s the truth: there will always be another coin. There will always be another hype cycle. But your portfolio can only survive so many “Dave moments” before you’re the guy swearing off crypto forever at Thanksgiving dinner.
Don’t be that guy.
Crypto Trivia: Mt. Gox Meltdown
Today’s Report
From Gatekeeper to Greenlight: SEC just Opened the ETF Floodgates
Our Report
Today the SEC made what feels like a game changer for crypto ETFs: they approved generic listing standards for commodity-based exchange-traded products (ETPs), which means new crypto ETFs can fast-track through approval on major exchanges like Nasdaq, Cboe BZX, and NYSE Arca. Under the new rules, an ETF built on a crypto asset becomes eligible for the expedited track if the asset has had a futures market on a regulated exchange for at least six months. This removes the need for every single spot crypto ETF to endure its own unique, lengthy Section 19(b) review. The change cleared the way for a multi-crypto fund (Grayscale’s GLDC) that bundles BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, and ADA to be approved immediately. Many more tokens now meet the criteria and could see ETF offerings soon.
Key Points
The SEC approved generic listing standards for commodity-based ETPs, specifically crypto ETPs.
For a crypto asset to qualify for this fast-track path: it must have had a futures market on a regulated exchange for at least six months.
Exchanges covered include Nasdaq, Cboe BZX, and NYSE Arca—meaning issuers don’t need to file separate Section 19(b) rules for each ETF.
Grayscale’s newly approved Digital Large Cap Fund (GLDC), which holds a basket of major altcoins (BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, ADA), is the first multi-crypto fund approved under the new framework.
Galaxy (and others) believe several more tokens already qualify or will shortly—Dogecoin is already in the mix, others like ADA and XRP will qualify "shortly."
Existing spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have already built up large AUM ($150B for Bitcoin, ~$30B for Ethereum), showing there’s real demand.
Relevance
This isn't just regulatory fine-tuning—it’s a pivot. By creating a generic framework, the SEC is signaling it wants to shift from blocking or delaying crypto ETFs to shepherding them through a more predictable, scalable process. Expect a wave of new funds, especially altcoin- and theme-based ones, soon.
From a trader’s or portfolio manager’s perspective, this brings both opportunity and risk. Opportunity in that exposure to more digital assets becomes easier, cheaper, and faster. Risk in that many new entrants may be less liquid, more volatile, or lightly regulated. Due diligence will matter more than ever.
Strategically, this likely accelerates institutional adoption. If a token has sufficient market structure (i.e. a regulated futures market), its path to being ETF-wrapped is now much clearer. Projects that lacked futures contracts or regulatory legitimacy will be under pressure to develop them.
In short: the SEC just turned on the green light for lots more crypto exposure via ETFs. Investors who move quickly might get to ride that wave. Those who wait risk being late to a rapidly forming party.
Today’s Top News
HEADLINES
SEC Approves Standards That Could Lead to a Flurry of New Crypto ETFs — The SEC has introduced generic listing standards across Nasdaq, Cboe, and NYSE that allow spot commodity‑ETPs (including crypto) to bypass lengthy individual rule‑change filings. The Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund is the first multi‑crypto ETF to benefit under that framework. It’s expected to provoke a wave of new crypto ETF launches starting October 2025.
UK watchdog speeds up crypto approvals in response to critics — The UK FCA has raised its approval rate for crypto‑firm registrations from under 15% to ~45% since April, and reduced the average processing time from ~17 months to ~5 months. This is part of a broader strategy to improve efficiency and respond to international competition. The changes suggest the UK wants to retain leadership in crypto regulation amid increasing global momentum.
SEC, billionaire Winklevoss twins resolve lawsuit over Gemini Earn — The SEC has reached a settlement in principle with Gemini Trust (run by the Winklevoss twins) over the “Gemini Earn” program, which the regulator accused of offering unregistered securities. Under the settlement, to be finalized by December, Gemini will resolve allegations of inadequate disclosures related to user lending of crypto assets. The case is symbolic of the evolving enforcement landscape for crypto lending and DeFi‑adjacent products.
Dogecoin ETF to begin trading in 'watershed moment' for pro‑crypto SEC — U.S. regulators have approved the first memecoin‑backed ETF, the Rex‑Osprey Doge ETF, set to begin trading soon. This marks a departure from past SEC caution around speculative or meme assets. Some warn it may blur lines between traditional investment products and more volatile assets, while others view it as evidence of greater acceptance of crypto variety.
Market Trendline
PRICE ACTION
Markets are treading water for now—but there are subtle shifts under the surface that suggest institutional breathing space is growing. Whales are active. Big caps are consolidating. Some alts are ripping.
Market Overview
BTC & ETH are holding in tight ranges. Bitcoin is around $115,300, drifting marginally downward (~–0.3–0.5%) over 24h. ETH is trading near $4,460, also down slightly (~–0.8%).
The broader market is mixed: modest gains in certain alts, but no breakout waves. Sentiment remains cautious pending macro signals and regulatory cues.
Notable Movers
Solana (SOL): Holding in the mid-$200s despite volatility. A huge whale deposit of roughly $75M worth of SOL to Coinbase Institutional has sparked speculation. Could signal accumulation ahead of a move—or prepping for distribution. Either way, institutional attention is evident.
AVNT, Merlin Chain: AVNT up ~60% in 24h, Merlin Chain also posting strong gains. These are likely liquidity-driven momentum trades—low float, high velocity, speculative capital rotating into short-term plays.
ETH, XRP, SOL (Whale Activity): Significant capital flows across Ethereum, Solana, and XRP from large wallets. Activity suggests either accumulation or repositioning ahead of the next macro catalyst.
Macro View
The recent Fed rate cut is feeding expectations for further easing. That’s buoying sentiment among large-cap holders and encouraging quiet whale accumulation.
Institutional infrastructure is steadily maturing—tokenized securities, DeFi regulatory clarity, and exchange-linked custody options are slowly changing the landscape.
Still, major resistance levels are proving sticky. Without a new macro spark—regulatory or economic—markets are likely to continue grinding sideways.
Bottom Line
Whales are quietly active. Major tokens are consolidating yet still retain upside potential in a favorable macro match. Alts are picking up, but mostly driven by speculative flows. Until we see a macro or regulatory spark, expect more sideways drifting, punctuated by bursts from momentum trades
Today’s Top Meme
MEME GOD
Crypto Market after the rates cut
— #naiive (#@naiivememe)
3:05 PM • Sep 21, 2025
Today’s Top Tweet
TWITTER NEVER SLEEPS
No. The business cycle has been held back because rates are still too high.
Wall Street has done well because liquidity has been rising. That is exactly why we stayed bullish after calling the cycle lows back in Q4 2022…
But Main Street is the ISM, and the ISM = earnings. That
— #Julien Bittel, CFA (#@BittelJulien)
10:02 AM • Sep 21, 2025
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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.