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Jerome Powell might be holding the mic, but it's your portfolio that's sweating. As the Fed flirts with tightening, $4 trillion in liquidity is eyeing the exit—and crypto might be the first to feel the draft. Meanwhile, over in TokenLand™, valuations are floating higher than airdrop expectations, with just as much hot air. Buckle up: today we’re talking central banks and uncomfortable truths.
Editors Corner
The Uncomfortable Truth About Token Valuations
Every crypto cycle, investors repeat the same mistake: they confuse “market cap” with value. Spoiler—it isn’t.
Here’s the dirty little secret no one likes to admit: most token valuations are smoke, mirrors, and creative Excel work.
FDV is fan fiction. Fully Diluted Valuation assumes every token will one day hit the market at today’s price. That’s like valuing your startup at $10 billion because you plan to sell 100 million widgets at $100 each. Cute, but meaningless.
Circulating supply is a game. Projects love to lock up 90% of supply and drip it out slowly. The small float creates artificial scarcity, pumps the price, and makes the “market cap” look respectable. Meanwhile, insiders hold bags 20x the size of yours, just waiting for unlocks.
Exchange listings inflate reality. A token can show a $200M cap on CoinGecko while the actual liquidity is barely enough to cover your Uber ride home. Try selling $50K worth and see what happens.
Valuing tokens properly means asking uncomfortable questions:
How much supply unlocks in the next 12 months?
Who controls the float, and how incentivized are they to dump?
Is the token actually needed for the protocol, or is it just a fundraising receipt dressed up as “utility”?
Most of the market ignores these questions because fantasy is more fun than math. But if you want to survive long enough to see the next bull run, you need to look past the fairy tales.
Before you buy a token, run it through this quick filter:
Circulating Supply vs. Total Supply
What % of tokens are actually in circulation?
If it’s under 20%, assume massive dilution is coming.
Unlock Schedule
When are the next big unlocks?
Are VCs and insiders about to double the float on your head?
Liquidity Depth
How much can you actually sell without nuking the price?
Rule of thumb: if selling $25K would drop it more than 5%, liquidity is too thin.
Utility vs. Decoration
Does the token have a real function in the protocol?
Or is it just a “points system” slapped on to extract money from retail?
Concentration of Holders
Are a few wallets holding the majority of supply?
If yes, you’re betting on their mercy not to dump.
Over and out,
-Will
Crypto Triva
Today’s Report
The $4T Question: Will Powell Tank the Crypto Market?
Our Report
Crypto’s got its eyes glued to Jackson Hole this week, and not because Wyoming’s scenic. With Bitcoin sliding from $124K to $113K in under a week, traders are bracing for Jerome Powell’s Friday speech and the FOMC minutes due Wednesday. The stakes? Whether the Fed hints at a rate cut or serves more hawkish ambiguity. Either way, the crypto market—$100 billion lighter—isn’t exactly feeling zen.
Key Points
Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks are expected to shape the rest of 2025 for macro and crypto alike.
Traders are desperately seeking signs of a September rate cut—though odds have slipped from 98% to around 84%.
Bitcoin is down ~9% from its August high, with Ethereum, XRP, and Solana also bleeding.
Market volatility is expected to spike around Wednesday’s FOMC minutes and Friday’s Fed speech.
Crypto has been hit harder than equities as liquidity dries up—losing over $100B in market cap recently.
Relevance
Crypto is once again proving it’s just TradFi with better memes and worse emotional regulation. Powell’s tone—dovish or hawkish—could set the market’s mood for months. A softening stance might juice a rally, but even a whiff of hawkishness could trigger another leverage flush. With inflation still sticky and macro signals mixed, clarity is unlikely. That leaves crypto exposed to interpretation whiplash and reflexive selling.
Bottom line: If Powell winks, bulls run. If he blinks, bears feast. Either way, welcome to the macro theater—your portfolio is the popcorn.
Today’s Top News
Headlines
Treasury Defends U.S. Treasuries Through Stablecoin Engagements — Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is engaging stablecoin issuers like Tether and Circle to unlock institutional demand for U.S. Treasuries, aligning with the new GENIUS Act regulatory framework. He envisions expanding the stablecoin market from $250 billion to a possible $2 trillion, integrating it into core financial stability.
Crypto Bleeds Ahead of Powell’s Speech — 8 Reasons the Fed May Choose Not to Cut Rates in September — Crypto markets are falling as traders weigh the possibility that the Fed’s upcoming Jackson Hole speech may not signal a rate cut. Heightened uncertainty is driving sell-offs and deepening bearish sentiment.
Bitcoin’s Institutional Shift May Spark Altcoin Momentum by September — As Bitcoin dominance softens amid growing institutional investment and clearer regulation, experts see the early signs of an emerging altcoin season, potentially gaining full steam by September.
Why Fed Chair’s Jackson Hole Speech Will Determine ‘The Rest of 2025’ for the $4TN Crypto Market — Markets remain edgy as Bitcoin dips below $113,000 ahead of Powell’s speech, with expectations mounting for a September rate cut that could catalyze a crypto rebound—making Jackson Hole a pivotal moment for the year's trajectory.
Market Trendline
Price Action
The crypto seas are choppy today. Bitcoin and Ethereum are caught in a corrective undertow—BTC measurably lagging, ETH barely catching a breath.
Total market capitalization is showing signs of contraction, with a clear tilt toward risk aversion. Traders are hit by recovery fatigue after last week’s highs; macro uncertainty and melt-off in rate-cut hopes are weighing heavy on sentiment.
Notable Movers
Bitcoin (BTC): Drifted down to ~$113K after tagging mid-$124K high just days prior—a roughly 9% slide off fresh peaks. That’s textbook profit-taking colliding with macro hesitation.
Ethereum (ETH): Contrary to BTC’s retreat, ETH is up ~3–4% in the past 24 hours, landing near $4.3K. A relief bounce, perhaps, as whales trod in to accumulate post-dip.
BNB: Punching above the fray with a 12% rally, eyeing a $2K psychological level. Retail and speculative bids are riding this surge hard, possibly driven by topic buzz or leverage.
Solana (SOL): Maintaining upward momentum and bucking a broadly bearish tape—quiet confidence, or resistance in action?
Macro View
Expectations for a Fed rate cut have cooled, with recent inflation data washing out bullish narratives. That said, long-liquidations across BTC, ETH, and SOL underscore how amplified today’s moves are by the prevailing leverage-heavy environment. DeFi and stablecoin flows remain in focus thanks to regulatory chatter, and Ethereum’s ETF-linked strength hints at institutional narrowing bets—retail panic, institutional patience.
Bottom Line
We’re witnessing the classic “sell the rip, buy the dip” dynamic—BTC leading the downside, ETH showing buyer resilience, BNB lighting up the board, while SOL quietly defies the slide. Macro gravity remains central: until rate vibes stabilize, expect this zigzag dance to persist across majors.
Former Zillow exec targets $1.3T
The top companies target big markets. Like Nvidia growing ~200% in 2024 on AI’s $214B tailwind. That’s why the same VCs behind Uber and Venmo also backed Pacaso. Created by a former Zillow exec, Pacaso’s co-ownership tech transforms a $1.3 trillion market. With $110M+ in gross profit to date, Pacaso just reserved the Nasdaq ticker PCSO.
Paid advertisement for Pacaso’s Regulation A offering. Read the offering circular at invest.pacaso.com. Reserving a ticker symbol is not a guarantee that the company will go public. Listing on the NASDAQ is subject to approvals.
Today’s Top Tweet
Crypto Twitter Never Sleeps
Michael Saylor built the craziest $BTC flywheel in history.
But his buying power is starting to fade.
The market is now asking one question:
🧵: Is the $BTC treasury bubble finally popping?👇
— #Miles Deutscher (#@milesdeutscher)
10:00 PM • Aug 19, 2025
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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.