
Good morning and welcome to the Hodl Report
Bitcoin just hit a new all-time high—and no, that’s not the weirdest thing to happen this week. That honor goes to North Korea, which apparently decided to treat ByBit like its personal piggy bank. Meanwhile, we're unpacking the fine line between diamond hands and denial in When to HODL and When to GTFO.
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Wall Street Isn’t Warning You, But This Chart Might
Vanguard just projected public markets may return only 5% annually over the next decade. In a 2024 report, Goldman Sachs forecasted the S&P 500 may return just 3% annually for the same time frame—stats that put current valuations in the 7th percentile of history.
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Editors Corner
When to HODL and When to GTFO: The Art of Knowing You’re Wrong
Every crypto investor eventually faces the moment. You’re staring at a chart that looks like a ski slope, convincing yourself, “It’ll bounce.” It doesn’t. So you double down. Then it drops more, and now you’re arguing with strangers on Twitter about “long-term conviction.”
Congrats — you’re trapped in the psychological torture chamber known as bagholding.
We’ve all been there. The trick isn’t avoiding losses — it’s learning when to HODL and when to GTFO before your portfolio becomes a monument to denial.
1. HODL When the Thesis Is Intact, Not When You’re Stubborn
There’s a big difference between “the price went down” and “the idea is dead.”
If the fundamentals still make sense — active devs, growing users, solid on-chain data — a drawdown might just be noise. That’s when HODLing makes sense.
But if the project’s Twitter went silent and the founders just launched something “new” on Solana… yeah, it’s time to hit eject.
2. GTFO When the Narrative Is Over
Narratives run this market — AI, restaking, dog coins, whatever’s trending. Once the hype fades and liquidity moves elsewhere, you can stay and “believe,” or you can rotate into something that’s actually moving. Belief doesn’t pay bills. Momentum does.
3. Respect the Chart (Even If You’re a “Fundamentals Guy”)
If price keeps printing lower highs and lower lows, it’s not “accumulation,” it’s distribution. Stop calling it a “buying opportunity” just because it’s cheaper. Cheap things can get cheaper.
4. The Pain Test
Ask yourself: if this went to zero tomorrow, would you still be fine with your position size? If the answer is no, you’re not investing — you’re coping.
5. Accept You’ll Never Nail the Top or Bottom
The best traders don’t time the market, they react to it. They trim when it’s euphoric, buy when it’s silent, and never marry their bags. Perfection is a myth. Profit is enough.
Knowing when to HODL and when to GTFO isn’t about timing — it’s about honesty.
The faster you can admit you’re wrong, the less it costs. The more you can hold what’s right, the more it compounds.
In crypto, humility isn’t weakness — it’s survival.
Crypto Trivia: The Crypto Crash Heard ‘Round the World
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Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk including possible loss of principal.
Today’s Report
North Korea’s ByBit Hack Drives Record-Breaking Theft in 2025

Our Report
Crypto crime in 2025 is smashing records. Halfway through the year, over $2.17 billion has been stolen from crypto services—already surpassing the full losses of 2024. A single DPRK‑linked heist of ByBit ($1.5 billion) is the primary culprit, making up the lion’s share of that total. And while big hacks grab headlines, personal wallet attacks are quietly rising, now accounting for ~23% of stolen value. Combine that with a worrying uptick in “wrench attacks” (physical coercion), and signaling from brainy laundering protocols—and you’ve got a crisis in motion.
Key Points
Record broken by one hack: The DPRK’s breach of ByBit is the largest ever, accounting for ~69% of service losses in 2025.
Theft is accelerating: 2025 hit $2 billion in stolen service funds in just 142 days—much faster than any prior year.
Wallets aren’t safe either: Personal wallet compromises are becoming a bigger piece of the puzzle. Attackers are shifting toward individuals as institutions beef up defenses.
Violence meets digital crime: “Wrench attacks” are rising, with a correlation to Bitcoin’s price surges—opportunistic violence when values are high.
Laundering is getting sophisticated: Attackers now pay heavy transaction premiums to move stolen funds quickly. Many still leave large sums sitting on-chain, especially from wallet hacks.
Geographic spread: Victim counts are spiking in the U.S., Germany, Russia, Canada, Japan, Indonesia, and South Korea. Regions like Eastern Europe, MENA, and CSAO are seeing the fastest victim-growth.
Enforcement playbook evolving: Blockchain tracing is more potent than ever. The same transparency that empowers criminals also arms law enforcement—with the caveat that actors are chasing speed over cost.
🔐 Relevance
This mid-year update is a stark reminder: the arms race in crypto security is speeding up, and the margins for error are shrinking. That single DPRK-linked heist isn’t just an outlier—it’s a preview of what happens when state-level attackers test the limits.
For institutional players: internal security, employee vetting, and audit resilience are non-negotiable. Multisig hot wallets and compartmentalization can’t be optional. For individuals: the traditional wisdom (“put it in cold storage, use hardware wallets”) is still essential—but now you also have to think about operational security (don’t overshare your holdings, be cautious in public, guard your physical self). The correlation between asset price and “wrench attack” frequency means in bull cycles, your risk goes up offline too.
Laundering patterns suggest criminals are optimizing for speed and obfuscation over minimizing cost. That’s a window: law enforcement can prioritize chasing high-premium moves, bridging flows, and cross-chain jumps. But it also means that if defense doesn’t scale faster than offense, we’ll see more exploits like the ByBit hack.
In short: 2025 is shaping up to be a watershed year. The question now is whether the industry and regulators can match pace—not just plug holes after they’re blown open. Want me to dig into one region or chain’s stats next?
Today’s Top News
HEADLINES
EU Watchdog to Set Punitive Capital Rules for Insurers Holding Crypto — The European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA) is proposing that insurers should hold 100% capital against crypto assets on their books. The measure aims to deter insurers from speculative crypto exposure given volatility and risk. It signals Europe’s increasingly cautious stance on institutional crypto holdings.
Crypto Giant Tether to Propose Candidates for Juventus Board — Tether, already a key player in stablecoins, announced it will present board candidates and governance changes at Juventus FC’s upcoming AGM. The firm holds a 10.7% stake in Juventus, making it the club’s second largest shareholder after Exor. This move signals crypto firms’ growing crossover influence into traditional industries.
Bitcoin Hits Record High of $125,689, Becoming World’s Seventh Most Valuable Asset — As of early October 2025, Bitcoin’s market cap surpassed Amazon’s, making it the world’s seventh largest asset by valuation. The benchmark price jumped to $125,689 amid strong demand and ETF inflows. It underscores crypto’s rising prominence among global asset classes.
Market Trendline
PRICE ACTION
Bitcoin ripped past $125K this weekend, tagging fresh all-time highs with all the subtlety of a sledgehammer. This isn’t just another momentum blip — the move sliced clean through a long-standing downtrend with conviction. RSI’s still got headroom, and volume isn’t blinking. If there’s a top, it’s not showing yet.
Ethereum’s holding its ground above $4.5K, buoyed by staking inflows (Grayscale’s ETF reportedly staked 32K ETH on launch day). Meanwhile, altcoins are quietly heating up. Mantle popped nearly 9%, and both BNB and HBAR are getting swept up in the rotation.
Notable Movers
Mantle (MNT): Up 9% intraday — leading the charge among high-beta plays.
BNB & HBAR: Posting steady 5–6% gains, signaling risk appetite beyond majors.
Optimism (OP) & Aptos (APT): Facing headwinds from looming token unlocks; upside could be capped near-term.
Macro View
BTC’s rally is getting tailwind from macro rot: government shutdown risk, inflation stickiness, and sovereign debt nerves all playing into the digital gold narrative.
Gold’s up too — a rare case of correlation that actually makes sense.
VanEck’s chief just threw out a $644K BTC price target by 2028 if it eats half of gold’s market share. Okay.
Over in Europe, regulators are prepping a more centralized crypto oversight regime — structural shift incoming.
Bottom Line
Bitcoin is melting faces again, but this run has real legs — a rare combo of narrative heat, macro fear, and technical breakout. Ethereum’s steady, and altcoins are back in the mix, but token unlocks could spoil the party for some. $125K flips to support — unless it doesn’t.
Today’s Top Meme
MEME GOD
"You don't have 90% of your net worth in meme coins?"
— #Gordon (#@AltcoinGordon)
7:57 PM • Sep 29, 2025
Today’s Top Tweet
TWITTER NEVER SLEEPS
The argument that stablecoins will replace bank deposits as the primary form of retail liquidity is correct: Why have a bank account when I can hold USD{T,C,etc} and make more than a savings account?
But the one hitch in the plan of replacing banks with stablecoins backed by
— #Antonio García Martínez (agm.eth) (#@antoniogm)
2:10 PM • Oct 4, 2025
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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.