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Good morning and welcome to the Hodl Report

Well, that escalated quickly. One minute we were doomscrolling memes about crab market boredom, the next we’re watching billions vanish faster than a Solana RPC node on launch day. Friday's crash didn’t just sting—it felt different. And whether you blame macro fears, liquidations, or some secret signal from the SEC’s espresso machine, we’re breaking down exactly what went down—and why this one’s already making history.

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Editors Corner

What Just Happened? Breaking Down Friday’s Crypto Crash

I’m still trying to process the chaos that hit the crypto market this past Friday. Out of nowhere, $19 billion in leveraged positions vanished in 24 hours—the largest liquidation event ever—triggered by Trump’s sudden 100% tariff on Chinese imports. Bitcoin dropped $20,000 in a day, erasing $380 billion in market cap, outstripping the value of most global companies. Reuters data shows his tariff moves since February 2025 have already cost $34 billion worldwide—how did it escalate this fast?China’s response, vowing to stand firm against a tariff war, and a possible Trump-Xi meeting add more uncertainty. Then there’s the whale who made $192 million shorting the market right before the announcement—insider trading seems plausible. Friday night’s thin liquidity turned this into a cascading mess, with Hyperliquid reporting $10.3 billion in long liquidations. That leverage was a disaster waiting to happen, dwarfing the 2022 FTX crash. Even Eric Trump’s “unbelievable” Q4 crypto comment from two weeks ago feels suspiciously timed. Binance’s CEO apologizing only underscores the fallout.I’m leaning toward this being a technical correction after Bitcoin’s 50% run since April, with fundamentals still intact. I’m sticking to spot trading and DCA, watching for rebound opportunities. But $800 billion wiped out in hours? It’s hard to wrap my head around.

Trivia: Binance’s Lucky Break

When Binance launched in 2017, it was just another crypto exchange fighting for relevance. But one fateful decision made it explode in popularity during China’s crypto crackdown:

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Today’s Report

‘This Felt Different’: Why Friday’s Crypto Crash Made History

Our Report
October’s shake‑out wasn’t your average pullback. Bitcoin plunged ~$20,000 in a day. Ethereum got hit harder, with a 21 % drop. The market suspects the crash had less to do with fundamentals and more to do with infrastructure failures, liquidity drains, and orchestrated liquidations. Whales reportedly pocketed over $200 million in profits by shorting during the mayhem. Some vultures are now circling the carnage, seeing opportunity where others see chaos.

Key Points

  • The crash on October 10th erased ~$19.36 b in long positions in 24 hours — one of the biggest liquidation cascades ever.

  • BTC dropped from ~$112,000 to as low as ~$102,000 on some exchanges. ETH’s slide was steeper in percentage terms.

  • The market turmoil coincided with a shocking U.S. tariff announcement from Trump — but many argue that the timing with Friday’s thin liquidity was too convenient.

  • Moonrock’s Simon Dedic floated that the crash “felt different,” hinting it may have stemmed from major technical or centralized failures rather than macro panic.

  • On‑chain shrieks point to a whale or old wallet making a ~$200M short bet, possibly interacting with exchange mechanics to exacerbate the drop.

  • Some traders believe this was just a forced reset—“a purge of excess”—and that the real upside begins when others are still flinching.

Relevance
Don’t mistake this for a garden‑variety pullback: structurally, this crash may reveal how fragile liquidity plumbing is under stress, especially when whales and infrastructure overlap. If centralization (exchanges, market makers) is indeed to blame, then the “crisis” wasn’t organic — the rot was internal. That raises a stark question: can confidence survive when trust in plumbing is shaken?

For risk-tolerant players, moments like this are hunting grounds. The “buy when there’s blood in the streets” adage has shown up again in trading chatter, and history suggests that if macro markets rebound, crypto often overcorrect to the upside. But that’s only true if the blowups here don’t trigger deeper contagion or regulatory backlash.

In short: we may be entering a phase where not only trend-followers get tested, but architecture skeptics and infrastructure stress-testers do too. If the next leg up is coming, it won’t be from momentum alone — it will require renewed confidence in systems, not just price.

Today’s Top News

HEADLINES

Market Trendline

PRICE ACTION

Markets took a punch and are now wobbling back on their feet. After a swift drawdown triggered by macro panic—tariff escalation and risk-off flows—crypto is staging a tentative bounce. BTC clawed its way back above $114K, ETH ripped ~6%, and battered alts caught a breath. It’s not a recovery yet, but it’s a reprieve.

Market Overview

The entire crypto complex got swept in the macro storm. Friday’s cascade was broad and brutal, but by Sunday, short-covering and opportunistic dip-buys gave bulls a bit of room to breathe. No clear leadership yet, but ETH’s outperformance hints at where capital’s rotating.

Notable Movers

  • Bitcoin (BTC)
    Still the barometer. It broke hard on the way down, sliced through support, and now it's bouncing. The recovery is tentative, but holding $114K gives bulls something to lean on.

  • Ethereum (ETH)
    Stronger bounce than BTC. Relative strength here may be structural—ETH remains the liquidity base for on-chain activity. Traders are treating it like a safe haven in a sea of chaos.

  • Altcoins
    Whale wallets are sniffing for opportunity: inflows into WLFI, PEPE, and SAND spiked over the weekend. Meanwhile, ZEC and ZEN led alt rebounds with double-digit gains off their crash lows.

Macro View

This wasn’t a crypto-native move. The selloff was triggered by external macro risk, not internal rot. That’s both good and bad: good because fundamentals are intact; bad because recovery now hinges on geopolitics, not just on-chain metrics. Correlation breakdowns across sectors suggest a shifting risk framework—some alts are resetting faster than majors.

Bottom Line

Classic dead-cat setup: oversold, sharp bounce, but no conviction yet. Unless macro headwinds ease, this rally has weak legs. Keep an eye on BTC and ETH at key resistance—any real trend reversal will need follow-through and volume. Until then, enjoy the volatility, but don’t get married to the bounce.

Today’s Top Meme

MEME GOD

Today’s Top Tweet

TWITTER NEVER SLEEPS

Raoul with the wisdom. Click to read the whole thread

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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.

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