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Good morning and welcome to the Hodl Report

They rang the bell and it actually meant something. Bullish went public this week and didn’t just limp onto the scene; it roared. flipping expectations on its head. Meanwhile, buried in the charts is a mind-bender: time, not price, might be your best trading signal. If that sounds like wizard math, just wait. Let’s unpack the tweet from Willy Woo that got me thinking this week.

i’ve been hooked on a new read this week—SeedRadar—and it’s been a solid addition to my rotation. Also been catching up on the latest Unchained episodes diving into ETH treasury companies. If you’re looking for something sharp to dig into this weekend, both are worth your time.

-Will

Editors Corner

The X-Axis Cheat Code

Willy Woo dropped this gem the other day: “Cycle top target? It’s the x-axis that’s important while everyone looks at the y-axis.” Translation for non-chart nerds: while everyone’s busy predicting some magical Bitcoin number ($200k? $500k? “one meellion” dollars?), they’re ignoring the part of the chart that actually makes people money—time.

Here’s why he’s probably right.

  • Price is sexy, time is rich. Guessing the exact top price is a fool’s game. Even if you nail it, if you get the timing wrong, you either sell too early and miss the face-melting run… or sell too late and watch your gains evaporate like Celsius user withdrawals.

  • Markets move in rhythms. Crypto doesn’t just randomly spike—it tends to follow cycles tied to halving schedules, liquidity flows, and macro conditions. If you can anticipate when momentum shifts, you can position before everyone else starts foam-buying.

  • The exit game is psychological. Price calls become ego traps. Time-based targets force you to think in probabilities and market conditions, not in magic-number hopium.

Woo’s point is simple: in a market this volatile, temporal awareness is your edge. Nail the x-axis, and the y-axis will usually take care of itself.

In other words—stop hunting the exact dollar at the exact tick. Start watching the clock. Because in crypto, the difference between a top call and a “should’ve sold” meme is usually about three weeks.

-Will

The Great ETH Merge

When Ethereum switched from Proof-of-Work to Proof-of-Stake in The Merge (Sept 15, 2022), it cut network energy usage by roughly…

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Today’s Report

Crypto’s New Wall Street Darling? Bullish’s IPO Makes a Statement

Our Report

Bullish did not just list on the NYSE today, it detonated. Priced at $37 a share for a neat $1.11 billion raise and a $5.4 billion starting valuation, the crypto exchange wasted no time in turning its IPO into a spectacle. Shares ripped upward, briefly brushing a valuation near $13.2 billion, because apparently institutional FOMO does not wait for quarterly earnings. Backed by deep-pocket names and regulatory tailwinds, Bullish is positioning itself as the clean-cut, well-spoken cousin in a family of chaotic crypto exchanges. Wall Street seems to be buying the act.

Key Points

  • IPO pop: $37 per share, 30 million shares sold, $1.11 billion raised, $5.4 billion starting valuation.

  • Day-one fireworks: Stock surged over 143%, flirting with a $13.16 billion market cap.

  • Regulatory tailwind: The Trump-era Genius Act, ETF inflows, and corporate treasury buys buoyed sentiment.

  • Institutional lane: Focus on large players, stablecoins, and credibility from ex-NYSE chief Tom Farley.

  • Sector signal: Gemini, Grayscale, and others are rumored to be queuing up for their own IPOs.

Relevance

Bullish’s debut is not just a company story, it is a market mood board. The near-instant doubling in valuation shows that, given the right mix of regulation, leadership, and narrative polish, Wall Street is ready to treat crypto firms as core capital market players rather than speculative outliers.

The institutional-first model is key here. By shunning the retail casino vibe and leaning into stablecoin infrastructure, Bullish is trying to become the Bloomberg Terminal of crypto trading. It is working, as investors are betting on steadier revenue streams and long-term market integration.

This IPO also resets the tempo for the sector. A successful, oversized listing encourages peers to dust off their S-1s, especially as macro conditions tilt friendlier to digital assets. If the 2021 retail mania was about meme coins and moonshots, the 2025 playbook is about polished offerings, regulatory partnerships, and capital market fluency.

The takeaway? Crypto is not just crashing the NYSE party, it is learning to wear the right tie.

Today’s Top News

Headlines

  • Standard Chartered lifts year-end ether forecast to $7,500 — The bank raised its 2025 Ethereum price target from $4,000 to $7,500, citing increased staking demand and regulatory clarity from the GENIUS Act. Analysts expect institutional adoption to accelerate under the new framework. The bullish call follows a strong year for ETH amid DeFi and stablecoin growth.

  • Terraform co-founder Do Kwon pleads guilty over $40 billion crypto collapse — Do Kwon admitted guilt in a Manhattan court to conspiracy and wire fraud charges tied to Terra’s implosion. He faces up to 20 years in prison, with sentencing set for December 11. The case marks one of the largest crypto fraud prosecutions in history.

  • Trump family’s crypto riches tied to PancakeSwap deal — The Trump-backed USD1 stablecoin amassed $4.5 billion in value, boosted by a partnership with PancakeSwap and a $2 billion Binance investment. The venture has sparked political conflict-of-interest concerns. Supporters claim it will “revolutionize” financial access ahead of the 2026 elections.

  • White House crypto adviser Bo Hines announces departure — Hines is stepping down after helping shape U.S. crypto regulation under the GENIUS Act. His exit comes amid heightened tensions between the Fed and Congress over stablecoin oversight. The administration has yet to name a successor.

  • Crypto exchange Bullish valued at $13.2B after blowout NYSE debut — Bullish’s IPO priced at $37 and soared 143% in first-day trading, signaling strong investor appetite for crypto infrastructure stocks. The company focuses on institutional-grade trading and liquidity. Analysts say it could challenge Coinbase in market share.

Market Trendline

Price Action

Bitcoin is hovering just above $121K, up about 1–1.6% in the last 24 hours as rate-cut hopes keep bulls in play. Ethereum is the real show-stopper with a 6.6% jump, trading near $4.7K and leaving most of the market in its dust. The total crypto market cap is up around 2–2.3% in the same period, with global volume swelling to roughly $240+ billion.

Market Overview

Risk-on sentiment is creeping back as softer U.S. inflation numbers fuel expectations for a Fed cut next meeting. Bitcoin’s price structure is holding a freshly confirmed bull-flag breakout, while Ethereum has been on a tear, smashing through resistance with year-to-date gains of about 73%.

Notable Movers

  • Bitcoin (BTC)
    Technical momentum is lining up, but traders are watching closely for follow-through after the bull-flag breakout. Macro tailwinds from easing inflation have kept buyers confident.

  • Ethereum (ETH)
    Outperforming with a decisive move higher. Institutional chatter, ETF optimism, and macro tailwinds are making ETH look like the belle of the ball—at least for this week.

  • Altcoins (Solana, Dogecoin, XRP)
    Solana jumped 14%, Dogecoin rose 8.9%, and XRP added 3.4%—all benefiting from improved sentiment and a general “risk assets are back” vibe.

Macro View

The inflation cooldown has Wall Street betting on an imminent rate cut, breathing life into high-beta plays like crypto. Adding to the bullish cocktail: a high-profile crypto IPO that roared out of the gate, briefly halting on debut. On the flip side, the industry’s darker history resurfaced as a major fraud case involving a well-known founder finally reached a guilty plea.

Bottom Line

Bitcoin’s grinding higher, but Ethereum is stealing the spotlight with conviction buying and technical strength. The market’s flashing green across the board, powered by macro optimism and a sprinkle of FOMO. Just remember—crypto’s mood swings are as legendary as its rallies.

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Today’s Top Meme

Memes are Life

Today’s Top Tweet

Crypto Twitter Never Sleeps

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