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Gemini’s bleeding billions but still whispering sweet IPO dreams to Wall Street, like a bandaged gladiator begging for one last round. Meanwhile, the real alpha might be hiding in plain sight—not in the charts, but in the stories we tell ourselves (and each other) about what’s “undervalued.” This week, it’s all about survival, spin, and the sneaky power of narrative.
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Editors Corner
The Hidden Power of Narrative Investing
In crypto, fundamentals matter… eventually. But if you’re trying to make money this cycle, you also need to understand narratives and not just tokenomics spreadsheets.
Narratives move faster than facts. One tweet from a big account can launch a “new sector” overnight. Remember when every other token suddenly became an “AI coin” the moment ChatGPT went mainstream? Half of those projects had nothing to do with AI, but it didn’t matter. The narrative was enough to pump them 5–10x.
Why narratives can beat fundamentals in the short term:
Attention is scarce. The market rewards whatever grabs eyeballs, not whatever solves problems.
Liquidity chases stories. VCs, influencers, and degens all pile into the same shiny narrative until the liquidity dries up.
Exit liquidity comes from belief. If enough people believe a token is part of the Next Big Thing, it doesn’t matter if it actually is.
The trick is timing. If you wait for CNBC to tell you about the “hot new narrative,” you’re already the exit liquidity. The alpha is spotting the wave before it crests. That means monitoring Telegram groups, Crypto Twitter sentiment, and where dev activity is quietly picking up before the memes hit.
Narrative investing is not about being right, it’s about being early. Fundamentals win in the long run, but narratives pay the bills in the meantime. The smartest investors play both games
Crypto Trivia
Today’s Report
Bleeding Billions, Borrowing from Ripple—Gemini Still Aims for IPO Glory
Our Report
Gemini, the Winklevoss‑helmed crypto exchange, just peeled back the curtain on its S‑1 filing and—surprise!—financials look rough. A jaw‑dropping $282.5 million net loss in H1 2025, far worse than the $41 million loss it posted in H1 2024, on revenue sliding from ~ $74 million to ~$68 million.
Meanwhile, Ripple has extended a $75 million credit line—expandable to $150 million—complete with interest rates between 6.5 and 8.5% and collateral requirements. If leveraged further, Gemini could borrow in Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin—a strategic foot in the door for RLUSD.
Nevertheless, investors are being asked to buy into the Winklevoss brand and timing more than profits. At least it looks more legit beside peer debuts like Circle and Bullish, both of which enjoyed healthier inflows and fancy price pops.
Key Points
H1 2025 hemorrhage: Net loss hits $282.5M on ~$68M revenue—versus a $41.4M loss on $74.3M revenue in H1 2024.
Ripple to the rescue… a little: $75M credit line from Ripple Labs, expandable to $150M, interest 6.5–8.5%, collateralized; draws in RLUSD once the initial limit is crossed.
IPO underwriters: Listing on Nasdaq under ticker “GEMI,” led by Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and other heavy hitters.
Dual‑entity architecture: ‘Gemini Trust’ in NY handles regulated custody; ‘Moonbase’ in Florida handles user operations—clever circumvention of NY’s restrictive BitLicense regime.
Crypto IPO hype continues: Following Circle’s June NYSE splash and Bullish’s August debut, Gemini is staking its claim in the IPO wave.
Relevance
Let’s get real: Gemini’s IPO is less about rewarding shareholders and more about rescuing its own balance sheet—and selling a narrative that public markets are the next safe haven for crypto. The staggering loss underscores that the exchange is still bleeding from legal bills, shrinking margins, and perhaps the weight of wading into unyielding competition.
That $75M credit line from Ripple is a band‑aid—it doesn’t alter fundamentals, only gives Gemini more breathing room to float through the IPO gauntlet. The option to borrow in RLUSD, though, is the real flex here: Ripple wants to muddy the waters dominated by USDT and USDC, and having RLUSD as a settlement option on a major U.S. exchange is a strategic coup.
Gemini’s dual‑entity workaround isn’t just structural flair—it’s a regulatory playbook. They’re trying to straddle compliance in NY while maximizing operational flexibility via Moonbase in Florida. A clever gambit, but is it durable amid growing U.S. scrutiny? That remains the question.
Public markets still have thirst for crypto—and Gemini might ride that wave. Yet unlike Circle’s exuberant debut or Bullish’s momentum, Gemini offers a story of redemption—not dominance. Investors tapping into GEMI should be betting on brand, political timing, and the crypto cycle, not profits.
Today’s Top News
Headlines
Federal Reserve Vice Chair Proposes Staff Be Allowed to Hold Small Amounts of Crypto — Michelle Bowman suggested allowing Fed employees to own minimal crypto to enhance firsthand understanding of digital assets. She likened it to learning to ski to better regulate ski resorts. The move signals a shift toward experiential regulation.
UK’s FCA Doubles Down with Dedicated Crypto Enforcement Team — The FCA added a full-time crypto enforcement staff and secondees amid a rise in illicit activity. Despite this, crypto firm approvals remain slow and selective. It’s a hard stance on crypto risk in the UK.
Goldman Declares 2025 the ‘Summer of Stablecoins’ Amid Rapid USDC Growth — Stablecoins are surging in adoption, with Circle’s USDC expected to grow 40% annually through 2027. Goldman sees integration with TradFi but not disruption. It’s a key signal of growing institutional alignment.
CFTC Approves Spot Crypto Trading on Regulated U.S. Exchanges — The CFTC will allow spot crypto on registered futures exchanges under a joint SEC project. This brings major regulatory clarity to U.S. crypto trading. It’s a milestone in federal crypto integration.
Market Trendline
Price Action
Crypto’s back in one of its contemplative moods. After a feverish run to new highs, markets are now inhaling sharply. Bitcoin briefly tapped $124K earlier this week before reversing nearly 9%, now hovering just above $113K. The party hasn’t stopped—just paused to find the exits.
Market Overview
The total market cap shed about 3–4% in the past 24 hours, dragged down by weakness across majors and alts. Bitcoin and Ethereum have cooled off but remain structurally bullish. Liquidity is thinning, and short-term sentiment is wobbling as the market recalibrates expectations around macro policy and ETF-driven flows.
Notable Movers
Bitcoin (BTC): Sharp pullback after setting a new ATH. Now retracing toward $113K as longs unwind and profit-taking sets in. Funding rates are softening, and short-term holders are spooked—but whales seem unbothered.
Ethereum (ETH): Following BTC’s script. Down 4–5% off highs but still within striking distance of its previous ATH. No breakout yet, but it's not breaking down either.
XRP: Down ~5%. Classic collateral damage. No major news, just getting swept up in the broader bleed.
AB Token: One of the few in the green. Up 7% on the day and 20% on the week. Not a household name yet, but clearly found a bid somewhere.
Macro View
The tailwinds of ETF optimism and rate-cut euphoria are now facing some chop. Hawkish Fed whispers, geopolitical tension, and lukewarm Treasury posturing are putting the brakes on risk appetite. Still, long-term holders are steady, and on-chain data hints at quiet accumulation beneath the surface.
Bottom Line
Bitcoin and Ethereum are cooling, not crashing.
Alts are bleeding, but mostly from neglect, not fear.
Macro fog is thickening, but no one’s pulling the fire alarm—yet.
Next move likely comes from macro clarity, ETF inflows, or one big buyer stepping in.
Learn from this investor’s $100m mistake
In 2010, a Grammy-winning artist passed on investing $200K in an emerging real estate disruptor. That stake could be worth $100+ million today.
One year later, another real estate disruptor, Zillow, went public. This time, everyday investors had regrets, missing pre-IPO gains.
Now, a new real estate innovator, Pacaso – founded by a former Zillow exec – is disrupting a $1.3T market. And unlike the others, you can invest in Pacaso as a private company.
Pacaso’s co-ownership model has generated $1B+ in luxury home sales and service fees, earned $110M+ in gross profits to date, and received backing from the same VCs behind Uber, Venmo, and eBay. They even reserved the Nasdaq ticker PCSO.
Paid advertisement for Pacaso’s Regulation A offering. Read the offering circular at invest.pacaso.com. Reserving a ticker symbol is not a guarantee that the company will go public. Listing on the NASDAQ is subject to approvals.
Today’s Top Tweet
Crypto Twitter Never Sleeps
Community banks can partner with companies developing stablecoins to foster innovation and offer new products. The OCC will review and update as necessary its regulatory and supervisory approach to ensure it supports innovations in banking and the vitality of community banks.
— #OCC (#@USOCC)
3:30 PM • Aug 18, 2025
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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.