Good morning and welcome to the Hodl Report
I’ll let you in on a secret: a 19th-century Ohio farmer’s hand-drawn “Benner Cycle” is still front-running Wall Street, nailing market tops and bottoms with spooky precision. And while we were gawking at that antique cheat sheet, the SEC just yanked off the cash-only training wheels and green-lit in-kind redemptions for every spot Bitcoin ETF. Buckle up—I’m unpacking how a century-old prophecy and a fresh regulatory pivot could tag-team your next trade in todays Hodl Report
Today’s Report
Benner’s Barn‑Door Market Cycle—A 150‑Year‑Old Forecast Card Put to the Test
This chart has been buzzing around Crypto Twitter all week. Everyone is saying its gospel and you can use it to nail market timing. At first glance it seems pretty accurate but I wanted to do a deeper dive to see if it actually holds water. Lets dive in
Background
In 1875 an Ohio farmer named Samuel Benner decided that hog prices, crop yields and panic years followed a rhythm. He sketched a three‑tier “cheat sheet” that later became Wall‑Street lore.
How did the old farmer do?
1910‑1950: He nailed the post‑WWI deflation (1921) and WWII inflation peak (1945) almost to the year.
Late‑20th Century: 1981 (card’s panic year) was indeed Volcker’s rate‑shock recession; 1999 (panic) was two quarters early for the dot‑com bust. Close, but we’ll allow it.
Modern Era: The chart flagged 2019 as a panic year—COVID’s 2020 crash showed up one fiscal year later. It also marked 2023 as a buy‑the‑blood year. So far pretty spot on.
Why it (probably) “works”
Humans recycle emotions. Credit binges, over‑optimistic cap‑ex and subsequent fear tend to pulse in roughly decade‑long Kuznets waves.
Policy over‑steer. Central banks fight the last battle, then slam the brakes a few years too late conveniently inside Benner’s 7‑11‑year valleys.
Self‑fulfilling folklore. Traders love a meme. Enough people glancing at this card can nudge positioning around its dates.
Why you shouldn’t mortgage the farm on it
Small sample size. Eight or nine “hits” out of 150 years is statistically compelling but hard not proof.
Data‑mining hazard. The dates have been “rolled forward” by promoters; misses quietly disappear.
Regime shifts. A global tech‑driven market doesn’t propagate hog‑cycle economics. Maybe. Its hard to predict what the exponential age will do to shift market behavior and cycle time.
Actionable takeaways
Treat 2026 as a probable late‑cycle peak. Trim over‑extended winners, roll tight trailing stops, and take profits.
Stash some dry powder for the 2030-2032 window; if Benner’s ghost is half right, discount shopping may reopen then.
Use the chart as sentiment seasoning, not a trading system. Marry fundamentals; date folklore.
Bottom line: Benner’s century‑old almanac is eerily prescient at cocktail parties and occasionally useful as a contrarian gut‑check but I wouldn’t base all of my portfolio moves on it. Pretty neat though
Today’s Report
In-Kind Revolution: Bitcoin ETFs Finally Go On-Chain
Report
Wall Street just got the green light to swap ETF shares for actual, honest-to-Satoshi bitcoin. The securities watchdog, in a rare fit of pragmatism, scrapped its cash-only rule and blessed “in-kind” creations and redemptions for every spot-bitcoin (and ether) ETF on the shelf. Market makers can now hand the funds BTC when they mint shares and pull BTC out when investors head for the exits. Goodbye clunky fiat leg, hello straight-through crypto plumbing. Issuers like BlackRock and Fidelity—who’ve been lobbying for this since January—are already polishing their arbitrage engines.
Key Points
No more fiat gymnastics. Authorized participants (APs) can settle ETF baskets directly in bitcoin, slashing conversion costs and intraday FX risk.
Spread compression incoming. Real-asset settlements tighten the ETF’s tie to spot prices, which typically narrows bid-ask spreads and mutes tracking error.
Regulatory mood swing. New SEC Chair Paul Atkins calls the move “fit-for-purpose”—a polite way of saying “maybe crypto isn’t Voldemort after all.”
On-chain liquidity test. Creations now require real coins; expect custody desks to scramble for inventory during feverish inflows.
Relevance
This is the plumbing upgrade the bitcoin ETF complex has been begging for. Cash creations forced APs into a clunky two-step (sell BTC, wire dollars, hope the price hasn’t mooned in the meantime). That friction translated into wider spreads, heavier tax drag, and occasional discount drama. In-kind settlement flips the script: demand for new shares now equals demand for real coins—instantly. Expect a virtuous cycle where tighter spreads lure more flow, which forces more on-chain purchases, which tightens spreads further.
It also changes redemption math. During risk-off flashes, APs can yank bitcoin out of the fund instead of dumping it on the open market, softening those stomach-dropping wick-downs. Add in higher options limits on IBIT and you’ve got fertile ground for basis trades, volatility plays, and the kind of sophisticated hedging that turns a niche product into a core macro instrument.
Bottom line: the ETF tail just got a lot stronger, and it’s now wagging the spot-market dog in real time. If you thought the January ETF launch was big, buckle up—the real integration of TradFi and on-chain liquidity starts now.
Today’s Top News
Headlines
$44 M CoinDCX Hack Exposes Hot-Wallet Weaknesses — Attackers stole private keys from a compromised server and drained funds in five minutes, then bridged assets through Solana into mixers. The Indian exchange confirmed the breach 17 hours after on-chain sleuths flagged it, sparking transparency backlash. User balances survived, but trust took a hit.
DOJ Seeks Forfeiture of $7.1 M Crypto From Oil-Storage Fraud — Prosecutors say scammers laundered investor cash through 19 wallets, routing it to Russian and Nigerian exchanges before parking funds on Binance. Homeland Security traced the trail and seized multiple assets; victims may recover part of their losses. The case highlights crypto-forensics muscle.
‘Coyote’ Malware Hijacks 75 Crypto & Banking Apps via Windows Accessibility — A new variant uses Microsoft’s UI Automation framework to scan browser tabs and steal credentials even outside mobile apps. Initial attacks focus on Brazil, targeting Binance and Electrum among others. Security teams urge hardware wallets and 2FA.
SEC OKs In-Kind Redemptions for Spot Bitcoin & Ether ETFs — The regulator will let ETF shares be swapped directly for the underlying coins instead of cash, aligning crypto funds with gold and oil products. Managers say lower frictions could unlock bigger primary-market flows and tighter spreads. Bitcoin briefly pushed toward $120 k on the news
Market Trendline
Price Action
Total cap slid below $4 T as 98 of the top-100 names bled red. Bitcoin couldn’t keep its footing, fading to the $118 k zip-code, while ETH clung to the $3.7 k ledge helped by a 17-day streak of spot-ETF inflows and treasury company buys.
Notable Movers
Solana (SOL) – Blasted through $185 on ETF buzz (first SOL-linked fund just cracked $100 M AUM), then cooled to $180; still up double-digits on the week.
Ethereum (ETH) – Flat isn’t boring when corporates keep buying; SharpLink’s latest haul pushes treasury-held ETH past 1 M coins and caps every dip.
Turbo Trump (TURBO) – Meme-fuelled hysteria: +2,000 % in seven days. If you know, you know just don’t forget the chair when the music stops.
XRP – Chart watchers are whispering “333 % breakout” on Elliott-Wave hopium. Price hasn’t moved (yet), but the cult is buzzing.
Macro View
Yields keep inching higher ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC presser, squeezing risk budgets. The ETF bid cushions majors, but alt liquidity is paper-thin—hence the meme-coin fireworks and Solana whiplash.
Bottom Line
Majors are treading water while anything with a mascot gets a moon-ticket. Until Powell speaks, expect chop thick enough to butter—$118 k BTC is either a floor or a trapdoor. Keep stops tight, egos tighter, and coffee strongest.
Today’s Top Meme
Memes are Life
Me IRF
Me watching my friends become more orange-pilled from the memes I send them. #Bitcoin 💊
— #Carl ₿ MENGER ⚡️🇸🇻 (#@CarlBMenger)
11:28 AM • Jul 25, 2025
Today’s Top Tweet
Crypto Twitter Never Sleeps
Customers get mad at grocery store prices because they can't see the Fed.
Investors get happy about rising stock prices because they can't see the Fed.
And everyone is confused about housing prices because they can't see the Fed.
But you can.
— #Balaji (#@balajis)
10:05 AM • Jul 25, 2025
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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.